Oil may be one of the few to miss this year's Christmas party after it tumbled to 4.5-year low of $US69.05/bbl after OPEC failed to overcome the self-interest...

Brendon Lau

Vantage Point Partners

Oil may be one of the few to miss this year's Christmas party after it tumbled to 4.5-year low of $US69.05/bbl after OPEC failed to overcome the self-interest of member states to curb oil production at its meeting overnight. Doesn't seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel for oil. Even iron ore is starting to make its seasonal bounce. Commodities tend to do well as Christmas approaches, but there's growing doubts about whether oil will join the Santa Rally this time even though it has historically gained ground at the end of almost every year (see chart). But it's not only energy stocks that will struggle to find favor today. Insurers, especially Queensland-focused Suncorp (SUN), could be on the nose as the market accesses the damage bill from the wild Brisbane storms. Insurers have been well bid this year, except QBE. Suncorp and IAG shares are up 10% this year due in large part to the benign weather. It's hard to say if favorable weather trends will remain given that the fire threat is high for this summer.


Brendon Lau
Associate Director - Investor Relations
Vantage Point Partners

I am with Australia's leading small caps investor relations and media relations firm, Media & Capital Partners. I worked as a small caps analyst and journalist prior to MC Partners. Views are my own and should not be regarded as advice or...

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