Peak of cycle indicators suggest this recovery could be a long one

Peak of cycle indicators suggest this recovery could be a long one. With the US recovery five years old, US consumer would normally be back to a level of around 120 (see red circles in Chart 1), but at present it is -20% below this level and has just hit its 45-year average rate. That is, it has taken more than half a decade for US consumers, which are the mainstay of the US economy, to feel like things are back to normal. This is one unique feature of recoveries after financial crises, where consumer confidence is dampened by the working off of debt excesses from the previous cycle even though the economic malaise may have passed and unemployment trends lower. Another sign of low hubris in the US is private sector leverage. We look at this theme and discuss in more detail in our latest insights: (VIEW LINK)