S&P 500 falls on robust jobs data, big tech earnings disappoint, ASX futures higher
ASX 200 futures are trading 12 points higher, up 0.16% as of 8:20 am AEDT.
The S&P 500 briefly rallied but closed at session lows after a trifecta of disappointing big tech earnings (Apple, Alphabet and Amazon), the US adds an unexpected ~500,000 jobs in January, bond yields bounce and gold prices plummet and CNN's fear and green index hits 'extreme greed' for the first time in over a year.
Let's dive in.
S&P 500 Session Chart
- Disappointing big tech earnings and a stronger-than-expected US employment report weighed on risk appetite
- Bearish talking points for the market this week include: Underwhelming Q4 earnings, cost pressures and supply chain constraints still lingering, labor market still too tight for the Fed, sell-side strategists pushing back against the rally and geopolitical tensions
- Bullish talking points for the market this week include: Peak Fed, soft landing expectations plus labor market strength, rebound in US housing activity, low earnings expectations and aggressive company cost cutting actions
- US dollar index caps off first weekly gain after three straight weekly declines
- Bank of America’s Bull & Bear indicator up to 4.2, the highest since March 2022
Apple (+2.4%): EPS, revenue and most segments missed analyst expectations; China production issues and a difficult macro environment weighed
- "Foreign exchange will continue to be a headwind, and we expect a negative year-over-year impact of 5 percentage points.” - CFO Luca Maestri
- "We're now at a point where production is what we need it to be. And so the problem is behind us.” - CEO Tim Cook
- "The [PC] industry is very challenged ... The industry is contracting. I think from us, though.. we're well positioned in the market, albeit I think it will be a little rough in the short term"
Alphabet (-2.75%): EPS and revenue missed analyst expectations; cost cutting work efforts underway
- "Our revenues this quarter were impacted by pullbacks in advertiser spend and the impact of foreign exchange.” CEO Sundar Pichai
- "In Q4, we saw slower growth of consumption as customers optimise GCP cost, reflecting the macro backdrop. Google Cloud had an operating loss of $480m”
Ford (-7.6%): revenue miss and next quarter guidance was light; flagged a further deterioration of the macro environment; Covid restrictions in China led to weaker-than-expected demand
- "The market forces, I think, are going to drive average transaction prices down, we think probably around 5%. And that will come, some from the dealer margins, but also from higher incentives.” - CFO John Lawler
Amazon (-8.4%): EPS, online sales and AWS sales missed; Q1 sales guidance was light and managed flagged continued weakness for AWS
"Probably the number one priority that I spend time with the team on is reducing our cost to serve and our operations network.” - CEO Andy Jassy
- US services index jumps to 55.2, well-above consensus of 50.4
- US jobs surges by more than half a million in January (FT)
- Jobs report to pressure Fed to hike and keep rates high (Bloomberg)
- Eurozone PMIs confirm a return to growth in January (Reuters)
- Global food prices down for tenth straight month in January (Reuters)
- Big stimulus in China unlikely as focus shifts to boosting consumption (Reuters)
- China services sector expands for first time in five months (Reuters)
The S&P 500 is starting to turn after the trifecta of big tech misses. The pullback serves as an opportunity to give us clues as to whether January was just another bear market bounce or if the market's truly bottomed. Some key price points to watch include (% away from Friday's close):
4,080 line (-1.40%)
The 20-day moving average (-2.8%)
The longstanding trendline (-4.70%)
Sectors to watch
Uranium: Global X Uranium ETF sold off -4.3%, in-line with how local uranium names were selling off on Friday. The uranium sector has been rather heavy in the past two sessions. Can it muster up a bounce on Monday?
Tech: Disappointing big tech earnings, strong jobs report and Nasdaq underperformance could see some negative flows for local tech. Of note, large cap names like Wisetech and Xero both pulled back sharply from session highs on Friday.
Lithium: VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF was rather heavy overnight, down -3.56% and back below the trendline.
Gold: Gold went from breaking out to breaking down. Spot prices have fallen -4.4% in the last two sessions from US$1,950 to US$,1864. Another aggressive selloff for gold could see some negative flow for local names.
All about AI: Here's the approximate number of mentions of "AI" in the latest big tech earnings calls, according to The Transcript.
- Alphabet: 62 times
- Meta: 33 times
- Microsoft: 33 times
- Apple: 2 times
- Amazon: 0 times
Back to greedy: "The run in markets since January have pushed the market well into 3-standard deviations above the 50-dma. It has also pushed the CNN fear and greed index into extreme greed territory for the first time in over a year. A decent pullback to support is highly likely." - Lance Roberts, Chief Strategist at RIA Advisors.
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
- Trading ex-div: None
- Dividends paid: None
- Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
- 6:00 pm: Germany factory orders
- 9:00 pm: Eurozone retail sales
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Livewire and Market Index's pre-opening bell news and analysis wrap. Available weekday mornings and written by Chris Conway, Kerry Sun, and Hans Lee.
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