The zinc market is in deficit with LME stocks down 40% in the past 18 months and prices on the rise, up 11% this year

The zinc market is in deficit with LME stocks down 40% in the past 18 months and prices on the rise, up 11% this year. We believe the scene is set for zinc price to appreciate strongly with Wood Mackenzie forecasting market deficits of 150-250ktpa for the next 5 years to 2018. The major driver is dwindling supply with the closure of several mines which have run out of ore. These include Brunswick 175ktpa (closed 2013), Perseverance 145ktpa (closed 2013), Lisheen 170ktpa (closing this year), Century 500ktpa (closing 2015), Paragashu 45ktpa (closing 2015) and Skorpion 160ktpa (closing 2016). CRU forecast zinc price to rise to US$1.73/lb in 2016 from current prices of US$0.94/lb. There are very few ways to play zinc on the ASX reflecting takeovers (PEM, CBH, HER, ZFX/OXR) in recent years. Alara Resources (AUQ) and Ironbark Zinc (IBG) have completed feasibility studies on their respective zinc projects.


Fifteen years as a sell side analyst (2000-2015) with Petra Capital, Merrill Lynch and Shaw Stockbroking covering small, mid and large cap companies. Geologist with 6 years experience (1995-2000) in the mining industry comprising roles with...

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