This ASX 200 stock is the only one at an all-time low - is the party over?

While the halcyon days continue for many of the denizens of the ASX 200, it's a sadder tale for this party of one. 

To make matters worse, it's one of only 13 companies on the entire ASX at an all-time low right now, according to TradingView, where it's in the company of micro-caps you might never have heard of. 

At the other end of the spectrum, there's nine ASX 200 companies currently at an all-time high, with many others having been there or thereabouts in 2025. In fact, there's dozens of companies with market caps above $1 billion that have hit 52-week highs recently.

So what left Endeavour in this uniquely-unenviable position, and what's the outlook for the company behind big Australian brands like Dan Murphys and BWS? 

There's two big factors at play: its status within the ASX 200 and its business performance. 

A new kid on the block

Endeavour is one of the youngest companies in the ASX 200, having been spun out of Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) in 2019 and only starting trading on the ASX in June 2021, at a share price of $6.50.

In contrast, many of the other stocks on the ASX 200 are established elder statesmen that have been publicly traded for decades and grown steadily over that time. It means they're unlikely to ever return back to their all-time lows.

Woolworths itself is a great example. The supermarket giant listed on the ASX back in 1993 at a float price of $2.45 a share, and has effectively risen ever since. Given it now trades at more than $26 a share, it's seems at little risk of dropping below the price it traded at in the early 90s.

Endeavour, on the other hand, only has a few years of trading to fall back on, and during that time, has had to contend with a consumer economy still carrying the economic and behavioural baggage of the Covid pandemic. 

At the other end of the scale, any mid-caps that make the jump up to the ASX 200 are unlikely to hit an all-time low before dropping back out of the index, given that it would have been a surging share price that got them into it in the first place. 

At a market cap of $6.3 billion, Endeavour Group is currently at little risk of falling out of the ASX 200 altogether, but it's been in a consistent downtrend for most of its listed life.

Ultimately, it's one of few stocks in the anti-Goldilocks zone where it's new enough but big enough to manage an all-time low while keeping its place in the ASX 200. 

Heavy headwinds

The big contributor to Endeavour's current woes is a flailing retail side, not helped by the uncertainty at leadership level. 

Jayne Hrdlicka, former CEO of Jetstar, a2 Milk and Virgin Australia, was named the new Endeavour Group CEO in April, but won't officially take up the role until January 2026.

It's left the company in a holding pattern at a time when it's already battling cyclical challenges around declining liquor sales. 

EDV's FY25 results showed NPAT down 15.8% to $426 million, with EBIT down 11% to $926 million. It saw the EDV share price drop below $3.80 for the first time, with analysts bearish due to the multiple quarters of negative retail sales and dilution to margins. 

Early FY26 numbers paint a similar story, with hotel sales up year-on-year, but Dan Murphy's and BWS sales down. 

A recent study by Flinders University found Gen Z are almost 20 times more likely to not drink alcohol, compared to Baby Boomers, suggesting this could become a long-term struggle. 

While its hotel business remains more robust, much now hinges on the strategy Hrdlicka will bring to the company in the new year.

Commenting following the release of EDV's results back in August, Martin Currie's Jim Power told Livewire, "I think she has an open mind and will do a thorough review to determine where to take the business." 

"There’s a lot you can do with this company - it’s very vertically integrated, with retail all the way through and hotels joined with retail. She’ll need to decide what the best structure is to win going forward. We’ll wait and see."

In a recent episode of Buy Hold Sell on defensive stocks, both of our guests, Blackwattle's Tim Riordan and Pendal's Brenton Saunders, rated EDV as a sell.  

Riordan echoed Power's thoughts, suggesting that it would take time for the new management team to implement its new strategy. 

"The challenge that new management is going to have coming in - what we've found through trying too many of these over the years - is that turnarounds tend to take a long time," said Riordan. 

Saunders agreed, while acknowledging it may leave the company in position for a potential rebound further down the track.

"It's had some pretty significant headwinds in pretty much most areas of its business. Be that on the pubs and gaming side, or be that the off-premise Dan Murphy side."

"I suspect most of those things are either fixable by a cycle or by management intervention, and that'll probably happen in time." 

"The thing that concerns us right now is that with a new CEO coming in, we just think there's still scope for a downgrade once she arrives, just to set the base," said Saunders. "But from there it becomes more interesting, because it's a potential restructuring opportunity." 

Bell Potter, UBS and Citi all maintain a neutral/hold rating on EDV, with Macquarie rating it an underperform. 

It seems like a classic case of wait and see. But what must be giving EDV investors a headache right now is the party is going on without them.