US pandemic mess to weigh on vaccine hope in the short term

Mathan Somasundaram

Deep Data Analytics

Local market started negative and stayed there after weak lead from US and China coal problems. US pandemic miss management has daily death rate expected to be above Sep 11 for number of months. Thanksgiving holiday was expected to be another super spreader event and that will start to play out in the next week. Vaccine rollout has started but will not cover the public for another 4-6 months while some part of the population might not take it at all. Markets are expecting parts of US to move into lockdown restrictions as hospital capacity is full. Election uncertainty may be over by some measure after the electoral college system votes were casted to Biden. US Fed meeting needs to deliver as stimulus seems to be missing in action.

Bond market has been flagging reflation and the equity markets are starting to agree as growth to value rotation picks up steam. We are early in this cycle as reflation to pick up dramatically in the next 3-4 months!!!

Overnight US market rolled from being up 350 on vaccine rollout hope to down 150 on looming lockdown restrictions. NASDAQ and Russell holding positive. Russell on value reopening trade while NASDAQ on Alexion up over 30% on AstraZeneca takeover. Bonds, USD and commodities are lower while Oil ticked higher on Saudi Arabian Oil tanker attack. Tech and Retail were the only positive sectors while Energy was hit the hardest. Brexit remains a never ending story and now London has a new faster spreading variant of COVID. US death toll is over 300k and expected to be higher than Sep11 death toll on a daily basis for a month or longer. Vaccine rollout will be 3-6 months away to fully cover...assuming no logistical problems. Restrictions were always needed after pandemic management mess while stimulus is the only growth engine. Electoral college votes will confirm Biden today and US Fed meeting ahead.

Remain nimble, contrarian and cautiously pragmatic with elevated global macro risks!!! Buckle’s going to get bumpy!!!

Not already a Livewire member?

Sign up today to get free access to investment ideas and strategies from Australia’s leading investors.

Deep Data Analytics provides this financial advice as an honest and reasonable opinion held at a point in time about an investment’s risk profile and merit and the information is provided by the Deep Data Analytics in good faith. The views of the adviser(s) do not necessarily reflect the views of the AFS Licensee. Deep Data Analytics has no obligation to update the opinion unless Deep Data Analytics is currently contracted to provide such an updated opinion. Deep Data Analytics does not warrant the accuracy of any information it sources from others. All statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate and any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. Assessment of risk can be subjective. Portfolios of equity investments need to be well diversified and the risk appropriate for the investor. Equity investments in listed or unlisted companies yet to achieve a profit or with an equity value less than $50 million should collectively be a small component of a balanced portfolio, with smaller individual investment sizes than otherwise. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions, unless a contract stipulates otherwise. Deep Data Analytics does not stand behind the capital value or performance of any investment. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, Deep Data Analytics shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, Deep Data Analytics limits its liability to the re-supply of the Information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. Copyright © Deep Data Analytics. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary to Deep Data Analytics and may not be disclosed to third parties. Any unauthorized use, duplication or disclosure of this document is prohibited. The content has been approved for distribution by Deep Data Analytics (ABN 67 159 532 213 AFS Representative No. 1282992) which is a corporate approved representative of BR Securities (ABN 92 168 734 530 and holder of AFSL No. 456663). Deep Data Analytics is the business name of ABN 67 159 532 213.

1 topic

Mathan Somasundaram
Founder & CEO
Deep Data Analytics

Over 25 years’ experience in the finance/tech industry. Mathan has worked extensively in all parts of the finance sector (i.e. County NatWest, Citi, LIM, Southern Cross, Bell Potter, Baillieu Holst and Blue Ocean Equities). Currently Founder and...

I would like to

Only to be used for sending genuine email enquiries to the Contributor. Livewire Markets Pty Ltd reserves its right to take any legal or other appropriate action in relation to misuse of this service.

Personal Information Collection Statement
Your personal information will be passed to the Contributor and/or its authorised service provider to assist the Contributor to contact you about your investment enquiry. They are required not to use your information for any other purpose. Our privacy policy explains how we store personal information and how you may access, correct or complain about the handling of personal information.