While you write of MMT proponents using the last 10 years of evidence, I've been impressed by evidence of previous blowouts of government debt. What happened to all that debt built up during WW2? Did economies suffer in the 50s because of it? Also, I think you need to distinguish between government debt (especially federal govt) and private debt. Yes, things have been sluggish recently, but is this due to government debt (which has been pretty low until recently) or private debt? Your point about Japan is well made. There of course is also the argument that their population is ageing and declining, but that wouldn't explain the sudden change from the late 80s. I wonder if if the government has been spending on silly things.
Excellent article David, addressing a central question: is inflation or deflation coming down the line? Since the 1980s interest rates have been falling and debt rising - a 35 year bond bull market. Are we on the cusp of a change? The future looks like a pincer movement between low growth and MMT- we have the stagnation nations already - Japan increasingly followed by the US, EU and ROW. MMT/debt monetisation should be inflationary, but when? Can we kick the can another 10-20 years down the road like Japan is doing? Logic suggests a limit to MMT: when we reach it, stagnation meets inflation to become stagflation, and with stagflation comes interest rate rises not commanded or controllable by CBs. I think that's how it unravels. At least savers will then get a fair return on savings again! When is harder to pinpoint. Covid seems to be speeding up the process. Thank you for your article.
David The price of gold has been rising strongly the last few years, currently about US $1809. What do you think the price will be in 1, 3 & 5 years? For Australian gold producers, or those very close to production with proven JORC resources & good AISC, how will their share prices be likely to perform in the next few years: . if prices remain about US$ 1809? . or continue to rise? Terry Logozzo Thanks for the article