John Kidd

I would like to understand why you think this will be a short sharp recession, with approximately 20% of the economy has been shut down with more to follow. I estimate it will pass 40% of GDP. What is worst there is no end date. So your short sharp recession is lightly to be a protracted depression given the loss of wealth, uncertainly and risk aversion.

Nathan Thomas

I’m with John. I think this could be a prolonged issue. Consumption and jobs are being smashed. That would be easy to change quickly


There is nothing to suggest that this will be a short contraction in the economy. This virus will not go away at least until a vaccine is developed and made available around the world_ and that will not happen for at least eighteen months. If the practical remedies such as social distancing, hand washing and especially staying at home were to be relaxed, the chances are that the virus will come back possibly with a vengeance. The worst seems to be over in China, South Korea, Singapore and possibly other countries and it remains to be seen what would happen if conditions were to be relaxed. Until people can again start to get involved in ‘normal’ economic activity and back into employment there will not be any resurgence. Forcing the economy into a comatose state for a prolonged period could lead to all sorts of problems, massive inflation being one of them. There are lessons to be learnt from what happened a hundred years ago.

Peter Ralph

I'm with John and Nathan. Hamish Douglas has gone from virtually calling it a hiccup to now calling it a depression (note: not recession). Short sharp ... I wish.