Commodity prices have continued to grind lower in 2015, impacted by the three D's: Demand, Deflation and Debt. This triumvirate of forces is causing commodity prices to fall and impeding the ability of industries to re-balance in the post-boom period. Weakness in emerging markets has resulted in a demand shortfall for many commodities. After 12 years of cyclical cost inflation, mining and energy companies are rapidly reducing their costs and in turn, lowering equilibrium prices. With large debt balances and low interest rates, many operations which are no longer economically viable are being sustained by lenders who are unwilling to shut down production and crystallize losses. We examine the impact of these forces on various commodities, in the latest edition of The Leading Edge
It's interesting to see that with all the commodities discussed, whenever the price has dropped below the production cost of the 50th percentile it has rallied soon after. Not suggesting this is a sign we all should go start buying commodities, but it will be interesting to see if the relationship holds.