There’s been a lot of talk of inverted yield curves in the US and whether they portend a recession or a stock market crash. But, I wonder whether we need to watch the yield curve as much as exuberance in stocks themselves?US yield curve inversionCurrently about 3/5ths of the US... Show More
2019 is just a few months away. So when we sat down with Natalie Tam, Investment Director at Aberdeen Standard Investments, we took the opportunity to ask her what she thought the key market issues could be next year. She touches on 5 key issues including the prospect of a... Show More
For much of the last decade, many investors were lured to a particular class of equities which, as they believed, would deliver yields greater than what could be achieved in the bond markets but without taking significantly more risk. This was the environment of ultra-low interest rates which forced investors... Show More
Overnight falls of 3.2% for the DOW (3.30% for S&P, 4.40% NASDAQ) are reminiscent of January-February 2018, and just like then it feels very unpleasant. However as always perspective is required when trying to ascertain whether this is a transitionary correction or the start of something more sinister. Show More
Warren Buffett recently gave an interview where he reiterated his firm belief in the US economy, which justifies Berkshire Hathaway’s investment focus on quality US companies. In doing so, he emphasised the long-term investment horizon, bemoaned the focus on short-term forecasting but defended his right to receive quarterly updates. Show More
Bonds are typically viewed as a defensive allocation in portfolios, however, in a world of rising interest rates, there are concerns about the impact this will have on fixed income returns. Stuart Dear, Deputy Head of Fixed Income at Schroders explains that the dominant driver of bond returns is the... Show More
The narrative we see at the moment is for a US-led, global recovery. However, the U.S. economy is at 2% inflation and 2% growth. Both times we had these conditions in recent years, growth fell away very quickly. Here we look at a major headwind that could see this pattern... Show More
There is an endless list of risks for investors to consider. But if we acted on every one of them, we’d never stay invested. To help isolate the key risks to consider in the current market, we asked two fund managers what's keeping them up at night right now. Ben... Show More
I spent a lot of time in the 2017 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst!). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report. Show More
The July round of flash manufacturing PMIs showed a slight but important rebound in the "global flash manufacturing PMI" (an indicator I put together based on the Markit readings). The global flash reading was up +0.4pts to 54.3 - the highest since February this year. While the move is not... Show More
Overall, the year was remarkable for being unremarkable. At least as far as the economy and financial markets performed. The year started with the fall-out from Brexit. There was a domestic election and the US Presidential election. In 2017 there has been a raft of elections in Europe. And there... Show More
The latest FOMC meeting included the release of plans for balance sheet normalisation or a transition from QE to QT . Show More
Local market fell on the open before making a decent recovery on the back of recovering US market futures and better than expected building approval data. US and UK will be back online tonight while China will be back online on tomorrow. Tax loss selling in May/June and seasonal weakness... Show More
A reset has occurred in the bond markets with sentiment going from extreme pessimism - expecting higher yields, back to the opposite side with the bond sentiment indicator now showing increasing expectations of lower yields. The chart below appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report alongside... Show More
The US 10 Year Bond Yields are rising with US interest rate cycle. This will push AUS 10 Year Bond Yields higher. Rising bank cost of funds will force rates higher. Equity markets will have to adjust to higher yield outlook but the recovery rate may be slower than expected.... Show More
Local market fell on US strike on Syria after opening positive…and then recovered into the close to slight positive. Spot gold bounced and bond yields fell as market ran to safety with rising geo political risks adding existing global macro risks. Gold, Energy and Utilities were the best performers while... Show More
I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More
Local market flip-flopped to finish aimlessly flat on weak commodity prices and no real global sentiment. Telecom, Energy and Health Care moved the market higher with support from Financials while Metals & Miners and Gold were the underperformers. The circus that is a bank inquiry continues to turn up entertainment... Show More
“The OECD concludes that Australia has the most over-valued housing market, with prices 52% above their ‘correct” level.“ Similar warnings continue as do the related dangers of investing in those financing the market – banks. The problem is the quote above is from December 2005. The point being, just because... Show More
In 2016 the local index was held ransom by a run of unpredictable political and macro economic events. The ASX200 climbed an unremarkable (but tidy) 7%, which belies the volatile, circa 1000 point trading range that it traversed. The influence of these events was not lost on equity investors, Macquarie... Show More