The narrative we see at the moment is for a US-led, global recovery. However, the U.S. economy is at 2% inflation and 2% growth. Both times we had these conditions in recent years, growth fell away very quickly. Here we look at a major headwind that could see this pattern... Show More
There is an endless list of risks for investors to consider. But if we acted on every one of them, we’d never stay invested. To help isolate the key risks to consider in the current market, we asked two fund managers what's keeping them up at night right now. Ben... Show More
I spent a lot of time in the 2017 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst!). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report. Show More
The July round of flash manufacturing PMIs showed a slight but important rebound in the "global flash manufacturing PMI" (an indicator I put together based on the Markit readings). The global flash reading was up +0.4pts to 54.3 - the highest since February this year. While the move is not... Show More
Overall, the year was remarkable for being unremarkable. At least as far as the economy and financial markets performed. The year started with the fall-out from Brexit. There was a domestic election and the US Presidential election. In 2017 there has been a raft of elections in Europe. And there... Show More
The latest FOMC meeting included the release of plans for balance sheet normalisation or a transition from QE to QT . Show More
Local market fell on the open before making a decent recovery on the back of recovering US market futures and better than expected building approval data. US and UK will be back online tonight while China will be back online on tomorrow. Tax loss selling in May/June and seasonal weakness... Show More
A reset has occurred in the bond markets with sentiment going from extreme pessimism - expecting higher yields, back to the opposite side with the bond sentiment indicator now showing increasing expectations of lower yields. The chart below appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report alongside... Show More
The US 10 Year Bond Yields are rising with US interest rate cycle. This will push AUS 10 Year Bond Yields higher. Rising bank cost of funds will force rates higher. Equity markets will have to adjust to higher yield outlook but the recovery rate may be slower than expected.... Show More
Local market fell on US strike on Syria after opening positive…and then recovered into the close to slight positive. Spot gold bounced and bond yields fell as market ran to safety with rising geo political risks adding existing global macro risks. Gold, Energy and Utilities were the best performers while... Show More
I wanted to highlight this chart because the latest data basically makes it start to look like it's going against my previous thinking. The "flash global manufacturing PMI" which is an indicator I put together based on the flash readings of the Europe, US, and Japan manufacturing PMIs has weakened... Show More
Local market flip-flopped to finish aimlessly flat on weak commodity prices and no real global sentiment. Telecom, Energy and Health Care moved the market higher with support from Financials while Metals & Miners and Gold were the underperformers. The circus that is a bank inquiry continues to turn up entertainment... Show More
“The OECD concludes that Australia has the most over-valued housing market, with prices 52% above their ‘correct” level.“ Similar warnings continue as do the related dangers of investing in those financing the market – banks. The problem is the quote above is from December 2005. The point being, just because... Show More
In 2016 the local index was held ransom by a run of unpredictable political and macro economic events. The ASX200 climbed an unremarkable (but tidy) 7%, which belies the volatile, circa 1000 point trading range that it traversed. The influence of these events was not lost on equity investors, Macquarie... Show More
As a holiday treat we're making the 2016 End of Year Special Edition of the Weekly Macro Themes available for free: http://www.topdowncharts.com/2016-special-edition This edition looks at some of my favorite charts and themes of the year from the weekly report, including the charts that worked (and those that didn't... Show More
The Christmas period is fast approaching and we thought we'd leave you with three top trends heading into the silly season. Firstly, the notable increase in bond yields continues to grow. Next, 17 out of the last 20, mid-December to mid-January trade periods have recorded positive returns. Finally, among growing... Show More
Australia’s RBA has its foot on the accelerator while the global bond markets are tapping on the brakes. Just when Australia’s economy could do with some stimulus it faces some headwinds from abroad. Rising bond yields internationally are spilling over into our bond markets. This hurts fixed rate bond prices.... Show More
The US economy is already in its eighth year of expansion, albeit one of sub-par GDP growth until recently. S&P 500 earnings are near all-time highs, as are equity indices and valuations. Goldman Sachs’ global strategy team points out that the US has followed a fairly typical equity cycle post... Show More
The below chart appeared in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes http://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2016/11/25/Weekly-Macro-Themes---25-November-2016 and shows the well known US Dollar Index (or DXY) vs the average 10-year government bond yield differential across the G10 currencies. There appears to be a pretty clear relationship between the interest differential indicator and... Show More
We believe that bond yields have finally bottomed. As they begin to increase gradually, investors can expect a higher ‘risk-free’ return from longer term government bonds. This, in turn, should see a jump in the required returns from other riskier asset classes such as equities, placing pressure on current valuations.... Show More