cash rate

History suggests that the RBA finds it very hard to fine-tune the economy.

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.

Continued economic weakness has seen the RBNZ open the door for considering rate cuts this year.

Underlying inflation is proving more persistent than the RBA had expected.

A policy rule still points to a slow/shallow rate cut cycle in the US, steady rate cuts in the EA, and that the RBA should hiked a bit more.

The consumer looks in better shape than the RBA had feared, with spending revised up as households tap still-substantial excess savings.

Unemployment has picked up, but the labour market remains tight with the RBA raising its estimate of the NAIRU.

The RBA thinks rates are at the right level to to return inflation to target, but discussed hiking today and warned on upside risks.

History suggests that there is the risk that the RBA revises up its longer term forecasts of inflation.

A large spike in Australian unemployment and flat employment looks affected by changing hiring patterns.