cash rate

Inflation spiked in Q3, posting one of the largest ex-COVID increases in the inflation targeting era, well above the RBA's forecast.

A surge in inflation in Q3 points to rates on hold for the rest of thus year and a much reduced chance of a cut next year

House prices have an outsized sensitivity to lower interest rates because the supply of housing is failing to keep pace with strong demand

The RBA has marked down potential growth on slower productivity growth, while trimming the neutral policy rate and lowering the NAIRU.

New bond issues are surging and so are returns. Strong demand and falling rates make now a prime time for fixed income investors.

We test the accuracy of RBA forecasts versus the market & how the RBA and its peers set interest rates using recent history and forecasts.

RBA defies cut bets and holds in its July meeting; resilient data point to rising short yields and curve flattening.

RBA staff have revised down the estimated neutral rate cash rate to c2¾%, although it is not clear if policy-makers take it at face value.

A fall in interest rates on term deposits and a plunge in global markets means retired investors have to search harder for income in 2025.

The latest US tariffs plus extreme policy uncertainty point to a sharp decline in US output and the risk of a synchronised global downturn