cash rate

History suggests that there is the risk that the RBA revises up its longer term forecasts of inflation.

A large spike in Australian unemployment and flat employment looks affected by changing hiring patterns.

CCI used policy rules to judge the risks around market pricing of rates in the US, euro area and Australia.

Business turnover rebounded in Q3, while payroll jobs continue to trend higher.

Market measures of expected inflation have picked up, which is unusual this late in the cycle.

House prices are buoyant ahead of an expected rise in unemployment

The big forecast miss on Q3 inflation risks a slower return of inflation to target

Underlying inflation is tracking well above the RBA's forecast profile

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.

Another measure of wages shows labour costs are growing strongly.

Workers securing pay rises are achieving large increases.

Underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high.

Past rate hike cycles have seen tight monetary policy to control inflation.

Strong unit labour costs account for the bulk of high domestic inflation.

The RBA is worried by high inflation and wants to anchor expectations.

A central bank will prioritise financial stability over dealing with high inflation if the instability evolves into a financial crisis.

The RBA will consider pausing in raising rates at its April board meeting.

With the La Niña weather pattern inundating us with rain this past year, it’s hard to imagine that drought is looming, but as central banks continue to tighten, the...

The RBA has increased its cash rate again but slowed the pace to +0.25% which took the cash rate to 2.6%. This was in line with our view and a slowing “at some...

At the time of writing, market pricing is looking for the cash rate to reach 3.20% by the end of 2022, which would be an even faster-tightening cycle than that seen...