We believe there are three key themes that will persist in 2019; divergence, disruption and debt-overhang. Invesco's Chief Global Market Strategist, Kristina Hooper, along with Arnab Das explore these themes here - and their implications for markets. Show More
As an active manager of high-grade bonds, we continue to focus on the moves of the US Federal Reserve. The Fed remains resolute on its path of increasing short-term rates into the zenith of the US economic cycle, and as the world gorges contently on debt. Show More
Sunday’s (March 4) Italian election appears to have resulted in a hung parliament as widely expected. However, centrist parties lost ground and populist parties made more gains than polls had generally predicted. Show More
Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More
The global banking sector has been undervalued since the financial crisis. However central banks are starting to increase rates and this should be positive for the sector as it will enable banks to make money out of the liability side of their balance sheet. It is hard to make any... Show More
As the era of QE draws to a close, central bankers face a conundrum: Nearly a decade of money printing has suppressed volatility… So, as QE is withdrawn, is volatility inevitable? Vimal Gor, Head of Income and Fixed Interest at BT, argues that the market has a bumpy ride ahead. Show More
The Fed is clearly well out in front in reducing monetary policy stimulus. Its stance was demonstrated again in June as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) increased the Federal Funds Rate by 25bp. As a result, the target rate rose to 1.00- 1.25%, while the Committee noted that the... Show More
Just as the markets had convinced themselves they were in for an uneventful carryharvesting summer, something started to change at the end of the month, with central bank communication seemingly dominating economic data with respect to their impact on market moves. Whilst the theme of disinflation continued to play out... Show More
Spanish banks have until recently been an attractive way for investors to play regional economic recovery and rate normalisation. The real estate market in Spain is in recovery mode and prices remain significantly below pre-crisis peak levels (unlike many other countries, including Australia). Domestic Spanish banks generally remain highly leveraged... Show More
Tim Toohey, former Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, was the #1 rated economist on the Greenwich survey for 13 years. Earlier this year he teamed up Brett Gillespie Portfolio Manager of Ellerston Capital's new Global Macro Fund. Livewire spoke with Tim about his strong view on how US rates could... Show More
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the traditional method of lowering interest rates failed to promote meaningful growth or inflation. This prompted several major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to undertake ‘extraordinary’ monetary policy measures to stimulate their economies. The effect of such an... Show More
Local market recovered from the fall at the open on the back of Chinese CPI data showing prices coming off. The market started to see the potential of the Chinese leadership to pump some cash to stimulate the economy while covering the June seasonal cash squeeze. Miners outperformed the market... Show More
Let's first consider the broader global economic environment, in particular, the macro drivers of a “globally co-ordinated” gradual improvement in economies which are continuing to evolve. The primary driver of markets, at this point in time, is globally accommodative monetary policy, which underpins economic expansion and the rise in financial... Show More
The French Presidential elections (final round run-off will be 7 May) and Legislative elections (11 and 18th June) remain the last of the major Eurozone political events for the year in that the outcome of the German elections (24th September), dare we say, seem far less important given the likely... Show More
This time last year, JCB Advisory Board Economist, Saul Eslake warned of the risks of a Yuan devaluation: “A large devaluation of the Yuan would add renewed impetus to the deflationary pressures that policymakers in advanced economies are hoping will ebb this year.” This proved prescient as markets saw a sharp... Show More
September was a reasonably volatile month as the markets had to digest key meetings from the ECB, BOJ & Fed and deal with a renewed focus on the viability of Deutsche Bank, after the US Department of Justice (DOJ) put forward their opening bid on the mortgage-securities cases fines. The... Show More
Market fell on the open with Euro bank worries before making a decent recovery to halve the losses for the day. The market delivered second positive week to finish the month/quarter after five consecutive weeks of negative returns. DB was leading the Euro trash worries and this was not the... Show More
Good morning everybody, on what is likely to be a tough day for local stocks with the futures pointing to at least a 1.5% fall in early trading. Today, we have changed our usual question style report due to the large nature of emails received over the weekend on the... Show More
Volatility returned to global markets late last week after the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi left interest rates unchanged and downplayed the need to commit additional stimulus. The news surprised markets that had been expecting an extension of the ECB's asset purchase program. Mr. Draghi's only new announcement after... Show More
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) was effectively the first central bank to introduce ‘unconventional’ monetary policy way back in 2001. Years later, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) borrowed from the BoJ’s playbook in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008 in an effort to guide the US economy out... Show More