forward guidance

“Forward earnings” and PEs are biased, create unduly upbeat valuations, weaken the quality of earnings – and thus eventually induce losses.

“Experts” obsess about irrelevancies, overlook what’s crucial – and are once again prodding the herd towards the risk of large losses.

Investors greatly overstate the short-term effect of earnings and ignore the long-term impact of dividends. The implications are momentous.

It’s “an article of faith among Wall Street research departments,” wrote David Dreman in Contrarian Investment Strategy (1979): “nothing is as important in the...

From pricing just 20% probability of a 25 basis point cash rate cut, Australia’s money market is now pricing over 100% chance, making it very likely the Reserve Bank...