In the AFR I assault the notion that the big banks are going to be threatened with irrelevance, nay disintermediated, by the various threats posed by fin-techs, blockchain, bitcoin, and/or the FANGs (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here). Excerpt: Show More
The current 25-year credit cycle has seen Australian household leverage rates move to record levels versus all other developed markets. This degree of leverage is unprecedented in Australian history and is often a precursor to a major housing correction. Show More
Freely available credit has long helped fund a love affair with property investment, with Australian household leverage up 23 of the last 25 years. Hamish Chalmers from Watermark told us: Show More
An increasing number of data series have been turning negative for Australia’s housing market. Auction clearance rates, building approvals, housing credit growth, and even house prices themselves appear to have topped. Anecdotes are popping up of units being resold far below their original purchase value, or with significant incentives offered... Show More
In my AFR column I lean into the housing and banking debates, and give my old mate Jon Mott at UBS some more heat (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More
I've been asked by a few clients why we exited our circa $250m position in AAA rated RMBS, which was a modest ~10% portfolio exposure that had performed brilliantly over 2017. The four charts below summarise why: house prices are falling; default rates are rising; supply of RMBS has surged... Show More
Despite the stronger than expected ABS housing data released yesterday, it increasingly looks like residential property prices peaked in late 2017. The bull market in property has seen prices rise from circa AUD $12,500 in 1970 to AUD $686,700 today, a total return of over 5000%. Show More
In my AFR column I explain the consequences of Labor leader Bill Shorten's proposed new taxes for shares, property and hybrids---it's worth noting that even the Greens appear to have a problem with the notion of king-hitting prudent retirees with the Greens' leader vocally criticising Shorten's desire to deny retirees... Show More
Labor leader Bill Shorten is certainly bold when it comes to assaulting the financial heartlands of Australian housing, equities and super. Show More
In my AFR column I explain why the housing correction appears to be very benign (until the RBA raises rates); why we took profits on our AAA rated asset-backed book; why the new A- rated issue from Singaporean bank DBS looked very cheap (and has subsequently performed strongly); and why... Show More
In my AFR column I explain why the RBA, not housing supply as governor Philip Lowe conveniently argues, was responsible for blowing the great Aussie housing bubble and what assets currently look cheap in a world where most remain dear (click on that link to read for free or AFR... Show More
The average variable home loan rate in Australia has fallen from 8.3% to 5.1% in the past ten years, enabling households to borrow more and drive house prices higher. Despite higher levels of household debt, Australians’ level of mortgage stress is quite low. But what if interest rates go up?... Show More
In my AFR column I interview Harvard geneticist David Sinclair about his transformational new research that is literally reversing the ageing process through repairing DNA. which he argues will extend life expectancies to more than 150 years, creating the third revolution in medicine after vaccines and antibiotics, and have profound... Show More
Here are ten things that I think will shape the global and Australian economies in 2018, and that expect I’ll be talking about at conferences and events over the course of the coming year. Show More
The recent house price data from Corelogic are showing further falls in house prices. The falls are, disconcertingly, most evident in Sydney where prices have dropped 0.5 per cent so far in January, which brings the aggregate fall since the September 2017 peak to a chunky 2.9 per cent. This... Show More
In the AFR today I outline my views on markets for 2018, including forecasting that Aussie house prices will fall year-on-year for the first time since 2012---after we projected house price increases every year between 2013 and 2017---and that US inflation will surge (in fact, US inflation has already spiked... Show More
The spring carnival is in full swing and it’s time to turn on the lights and examine the political and economic form guide. My tip is "Uncertainty", which seems to have the best track record in politics and economics. So here’s my take on the rest of the runners… Show More
In the AFR today I examine whether Aussie housing is cheap or expensive and conclude that all roads lead to your view on interest rates---if you think that rates will rise at least 100bps to 200bps over the next few years then our homes will need to correct 10% to... Show More
The Australian housing sector is critical for both the economy and stock market. New dwelling construction and renovations create jobs and rising house prices creates wealth, which then flows into retail and other consumer-facing sectors. Importantly, new housing activity has tended to run counter-cyclical to the resource CapEx cycle, dropping... Show More
With the flow of new interest-only lending limited to 30% of the total, some existing borrowers may be about to discover that they are unable to roll over their interest-only loans, and they will be forced to start repaying principal. Show More
