Today I explain why ANZ was nuts not to fully cut its lending rates in May; why it will be even harder for all banks to pass along the next RBA cut, which could come in July or August; why the cash-flow impact of rate cuts could actually be negative;... Show More
The latest episode of Coolabah Capital’s Complexity Premia markets/investing podcast is now live over at Apple here or at Podbean here.In the latest episode we discuss: recent developments in financial markets; the consequences of Scott Morrison’s (unsurprising) election victory for investors; the most attractive parts of the corporate capital structure;... Show More
In my column today I reveal that there are some tentative signs that the Aussie housing market may be already turning with a recovery assured by: an RBA rate cut in June; APRA's decision to slash the minimum interest serviceability rate from circa 7.25% to 6.0%, which we estimate will... Show More
In my column today I analyse why ScoMo really won, noting that "during the week I advised my investors, media colleagues and friends that it would not be surprising if Scott Morrison won the election comfortably". Click on that link to read the column or AFR subs can click here.... Show More
First, a big thanks for the incredible interest in, and downloads of, our Complexity Premia podcast! We have just published the third episode where we: discuss analysis showing that the government’s fiscal budget is already in surplus and what this means for the looming election; reflect on the heated and... Show More
Today I show how ScoMo has already delivered a $7bn plus budget surplus on a number of the key measures years in advance of what rating agencies and analysts (save yours truly) expected, which is the best budget outcome since 2008. I then present the evidence I used to demolish... Show More
Billed as the "property punch-up of the century" by News.com.au, and as "Fight Night" by Sky Business TV, I went head-to-head for 30 heated minutes with mega perma-bear John Adams last night on Peter Switzer's television show. I thought I smashed Adams pretty convincingly, and Switzer appeared to agree in... Show More
Let's take a step back from the monthly housing data and ask ourselves: What's happening in the market and are we seeing a bottom in prices - or are there further falls to come? Show More
In my column today I write "if only the RBA had its brilliant new research on the impact of interest rates on house prices back in 2013 when I warned them that their easy money policy would blow a huge housing bubble, as it subsequently did" (click on that link... Show More
Coolabah developed the world's first compositionally-adjusted, or hedonic, regression-based index of RMBS default rates, covering all prime deals that Bloomberg reports on (you can download the paper here). We update this index monthly, and the results are enclosed below. Show More
