As investors we need to be alert to the fact that environments can and do change rapidly. It is possible that we could move from a low to a high return world very quickly. In part as a consequence of the prevailing concerns around the low return environment, there is... Show More
The prevailing and overwhelming consensus is that we are in a “low return” world. After all, with negative bond yields prevailing in many parts of the globe and extended structural valuations evident in key equity markets, it is empirically difficult to see how many markets could deliver decent size, positive... Show More
The first 3 months of 2016 were characterised by heightened volatility across asset markets with sharp falls in risk asset prices in January and early February which reversed in late February and March. Likewise, bond yields declined sharply as risk assets fell before stabilising / rising in conjunction with the... Show More
The New Year is typically celebrated with fireworks – the major cities all trying to outdo each other with both colour and impact. It was a seemingly similar start to 2016 for the major markets. Shares slumped across the globe, credit spreads widened, the oil price collapsed and bonds rallied... Show More
We enter 2016 faced with familiar challenges to 2015. While returns have been anaemic, increased volatility has not been sufficient to reset prospective returns to levels that would make us interested in deploying cash and taking more risk. In short, our return expectations for the major asset classes are not... Show More
A key differentiator this year when compared to 2013 and 2014 has been the growing bifurcation between the winning and losing assets. While 2013 could be broadly categorised as a year where most assets did well, 2014 was somewhat more discriminating but on balance a good year for most investors.... Show More
The last 3 months have been a rollercoaster ride. Anyone who’d slept through this period would be forgiven for thinking “what was all the fuss about”? Having seen markets rebound (US equities in particular) we have again cut our risk position, this time through buying protection against renewed volatility in... Show More
The idea of a complacency gap is that low implied market volatility (VIX) is inconsistent with the deterioration in valuations and high risk of loss. While recent market weakness associated with an increase in market volatility has reduced this gap, it nonetheless remains relatively wide – especially for bonds. The... Show More
Our return forecasts continue to highlight the risks associated with relatively stretched valuations. The recent pick-up in volatility and re-pricing of equities (mainly) and credit (secondly) has done little to fundamentally change the outlook. This is largely because of the extent to which a large part of the valuation anomaly... Show More
Over the last 12-18 months we have highlighted the gap between investors’ perceptions of risk in asset prices and the implications of extended valuations on future returns. Simon Doyle, Head of Fixed Income & Multi-Asset reinforced our essential argument with respect to asset prices is that whether you look at... Show More
