The New Year is typically celebrated with fireworks – the major cities all trying to outdo each other with both colour and impact. It was a seemingly similar start to 2016 for the major markets. Shares slumped across the globe, credit spreads widened, the oil price collapsed and bonds rallied - a tough start to the year by most metrics. To a significant extent the catalysts were not new. Oil prices continued to fall, moderating trend growth and the structural rebalancing of the Chinese economy, overlayed with a cyclical slowdown and seemingly erratic policy responses. At the same time we saw a moderation in US data and the BOJ’s adoption of negative interest rates on selected deposits. Desperate times, desperate measures. You can read further at “Real Matters – The crystal ball is cloudy” (VIEW LINK)
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