unemployment

Latest news and analysis on unemployment

Macro

The drivers of higher unemployment across countries

Weaker demand for labour explains higher unemployment in most countries, but Australia's jobless rate has edged up on increased supply.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Meeting the Sahm rule recession threshold supports a September Fed rate cut

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Risks around a sharp rise in unemployment

Falling job vacancies could see sharp increases in unemployment in the US and UK, while the EA and Australia look further from this point.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

New Zealand in recession

NZ unemployment continues to rise as employment falls.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Earnings season forecasts are diverging at a historic pace

For our first pack of new charts in 2024, we take a deep dive into historic trends.
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Fixed Income

Watching grass grow

On fixed rate bond exposure, now is not the time to have zero, but it is not the time to fill your boots.
Charlie Callan
BondAdviser
Macro

Real yields, Taiwanese trade and Bitcoin’s rally

This week’s charts begin with a historic look at US bond returns
Macrobond Financial
Macrobond Financial
Macro

Higher Q3 inflation should see the RBA raise rates

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Chinese CPI y/y fell -0.3%, US core inflation m/m steady at 0.2%

Weekly Update | 11th August, 2023
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
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