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us interest rates
Latest news and analysis on us interest rates
Macro
September 20, 2024 10:26
Risks around Fed policy in a soft landing
The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
September 20, 2024 10:26
Macro
August 05, 2024 08:39
Meeting the Sahm rule recession threshold supports a September Fed rate cut
The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
August 05, 2024 08:39
Macro
July 11, 2024 17:44
Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession
Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
July 11, 2024 17:44
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Macro
May 09, 2024 08:56
US inflation could take longer to reach the Fed's 2% target
Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
May 09, 2024 08:56
Macro
May 01, 2024 09:56
The improvement in US wages growth stalls
Wages growth has slowed a lot from its COVID peak, but the improvement looks to have broadly stalled recently.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
May 01, 2024 09:56
Macro
April 28, 2024 11:54
The Fed is challenged by higher inflation in Q1
Underlying inflation has picked up sharply in Q1 on a range of measures.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
April 28, 2024 11:54
Macro
April 11, 2024 08:05
Higher US inflation, derails Fed rate cut plans and poses a threat to risky assets
Higher core inflation will disappoint the Fed and shake optimism about risk assets.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
April 11, 2024 08:05
Macro
March 22, 2024 08:17
Fed signals US rate cuts & slightly higher rates for longer
The FOMC expects to cut rates at a faster pace than implied by a policy rule relying on its own economic forecasts.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
March 22, 2024 08:17
Macro
March 14, 2024 23:03
Five takeaways from US soft landings
Whether we will see a soft landing has been the big question facing financial markets.
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
March 14, 2024 23:03
Views from the Top
March 08, 2024 08:00
Why volatility is good news for this type of investment
strategy
And the reason interest rate hikes don't work quite the way they used to.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
March 08, 2024 08:00
Macro
November 01, 2023 08:42
Strong US wages growth continues
Wages growth has slowed, but was the fastest in trend terms since 2000.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
November 01, 2023 08:42
Property
October 18, 2023 14:47
Rising interest rates mean a slower construction sector
As interest rates rise, investment activity falls, reducing activity across the construction sector, impacting residential property supply.
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
October 18, 2023 14:47
Macro
October 03, 2023 12:16
Latest PCE inflation data doesn't support another US rate hike
With the latest PCE inflation data showing deepening disinflation amidst falling lending growth & M2, data doesn't support another rate hike
Steven Anastasiou
Economics Uncovered
October 03, 2023 12:16
Macro
May 29, 2023 08:37
The familiar story of sticky US inflation
US core inflation remains persistently high.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
May 29, 2023 08:37
Macro
January 25, 2023 13:41
Worried about the mortgage cliff? This is what the Fed and RBA need to see before cutting rates
Rate cuts will come eventually, but central banks need to break some things first.
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
January 25, 2023 13:41
Macro
December 16, 2022 11:22
Lessons from past US recessions
In the context of the bond market signalling a US recession in late 2023/early 2024 - where CCI has been forecasting a recession since earlier this year - we have...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
December 16, 2022 11:22
Macro
February 03, 2022 11:00
Inflation from a small cap perspective
I’ve spent the last few days talking to most of the folks I know in the market, collecting opinions, information and discussing what other investors are thinking on...
Gary Rollo
Montgomery
February 03, 2022 11:00
Macro
January 17, 2022 14:18
My recent Q&A on the year that was, and the year ahead
This market insight is a selection of questions from our investors that I answer to provide further insight into the year that was, and our outlook for the upcoming...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
January 17, 2022 14:18
Macro
November 08, 2021 15:49
Three things that should worry everyone
There are three prices that ultimately matter for the world, explains Andrew Canobi from Franklin Templeton. The price of oil, the value of the US Dollar, and the US...
Andrew Canobi
Franklin Templeton
November 08, 2021 15:49
Macro
March 15, 2021 09:30
High risk of US equity market correction
US equities are extremely expensive according to long-term valuation measures such as the cyclically-adjusted PE (CAPE) ratio. The CAPE ratio for the S&P500 is...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
March 15, 2021 09:30
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