us interest rates

Latest news and analysis on us interest rates

Macro

US tariffs point to a sharp US contraction & global downturn

The latest US tariffs plus extreme policy uncertainty point to a sharp decline in US output and the risk of a synchronised global downturn
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The US economy could contract in Q1 as spending broadly stalls

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed looks overly optimistic on the US outlook

IMF analysis suggests that the Fed is too optimistic on the likely impact of initial Trump tariffs.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Wishful thinking: the Trump administration's "3-3-3" economic plan

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Trump starts a global trade war

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Upside risks to inflation are back on the Fed's agenda

The Fed expects inflation will take longer to return to target, with upside risks reflecting recent firmer inflation and Trump policies.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Risks around Fed policy in a soft landing

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Meeting the Sahm rule recession threshold supports a September Fed rate cut

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US inflation could take longer to reach the Fed's 2% target

Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The improvement in US wages growth stalls

Wages growth has slowed a lot from its COVID peak, but the improvement looks to have broadly stalled recently.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed is challenged by higher inflation in Q1

Underlying inflation has picked up sharply in Q1 on a range of measures.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher US inflation, derails Fed rate cut plans and poses a threat to risky assets

Higher core inflation will disappoint the Fed and shake optimism about risk assets.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed signals US rate cuts & slightly higher rates for longer

The FOMC expects to cut rates at a faster pace than implied by a policy rule relying on its own economic forecasts.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Five takeaways from US soft landings

Whether we will see a soft landing has been the big question facing financial markets.
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
Views from the Top

Why volatility is good news for this type of investment strategy

And the reason interest rate hikes don't work quite the way they used to.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

Strong US wages growth continues

Wages growth has slowed, but was the fastest in trend terms since 2000.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Property

Rising interest rates mean a slower construction sector

As interest rates rise, investment activity falls, reducing activity across the construction sector, impacting residential property supply.
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
Macro

Latest PCE inflation data doesn't support another US rate hike

With the latest PCE inflation data showing deepening disinflation amidst falling lending growth & M2, data doesn't support another rate hike
Steven Anastasiou
Economics Uncovered
Macro

The familiar story of sticky US inflation

US core inflation remains persistently high.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
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