us interest rates

What's driving markets right now?

Clime Asset Management
Clime Asset Management Funds Management & Stock Research

In this article we look at some of the more topical subjects influencing financial markets and analyse a few interesting charts. We start with rising rates – the message being delivered by the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen in uncharacteristic straightforward terms. Then we cast an eye over President Trump’s tax... Show More

Paul Moore: It’s time to think differently

PM Capital
PM Capital Fund Manager

Interest rates and inflation have been on a downward trajectory since the late 80s, a 30 year trend. Paul Moore says 2016 was an inflection point and expects inflation to return. For the majority of investors this represents unchartered territory, so how do you approach such a foreign outlook? Show More

An early warning signal for a bear market

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More

Government bonds equal safe, yes? …..not so fast.

PM Capital
PM Capital Fund Manager

PM Capital income securities portfolio manager Jarod Dawson believes the value of 10-year US government bonds could fall more than 20% because the US economy is doing a lot better than most people think. While a strong US economy is good news for most, the accompanying hikes in US interest... Show More

Investors predict one way traffic for Aussie Dollar

Buy Hold Sell
Buy Hold Sell Livewire

Everyone forecast the death of the Aussie dollar in 2016, however, interest rate differentials and resurgent commodity prices pushed the local currency to a peak of 78 cents early in 2016. Of the 600+ Livewire members that responded to our 2017 Outlook Survey only 5% see the currency ending the... Show More

Jakobsen: AUD could be at parity with USD within a year

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank recently told the ABC that Australian rates are flattening out, and the next significant move will be to the upside. “We may see one more lowering of the rates, but that will be the low point. So that is the Australian side. The US dollar... Show More

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Macroeconomic issues trump politics in the markets

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

Morgans Chief Economist, Michael Knox, is not concerned about the impacts of the current political landscape. Instead, he’s more worried about global macro issues having an impact. “If we get quite strong growth numbers, both in employment and in GDP for the 2nd quarter, then we have to say that... Show More

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The Fed: One and done?

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

The Fed's plans to normalise interest rate settings appear to becoming unstuck . Derivative markets see rate cut more likely than hike in 2016 and are not pricing further rate hikes until January 2018. "Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell warned yesterday that global risks have shifted further to the downside... Show More

us interest rates

US rates won’t move a lot and it’s not going to matter

Livewire Exclusive

Terry Glomski, Senior Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman, manages a portfolio of fixed income investments. Keeping an eye on the outlook for interest rates is an essential part of his investment process. The Fed is facing a delicate balancing act in 2016, Glomski shares his views on how US rates... Show More

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Want to know when the Fed starts dishing out more stimulus?

Livewire Exclusive

Charlie Jamieson, Executive Director at Jamieson Coote Bonds says the Fed has a track record of dishing out stimulus each time the S&P has fallen around 20%. “Historically under QE programs we’ve seen stimulus for the market at that level. When the Federal Reserve finished QE1, the S&P dropped roughly... Show More

us interest rates

The probability of negative U.S. rates is on the rise

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

Global central banks have opened the door to negative U.S. interest rates, in Wall Street’s view. After the Bank of Japan cut some rates below zero last month to spur growth and inflation, strategists are weighing the Federal Reserve’s options in case of a crisis. If the world’s biggest economy... Show More

us interest rates

The Bear Market we need to have?

Buy Hold Sell
Buy Hold Sell Livewire

Loose monetary policy from central banks has steadily projected asset prices higher since 2009. However, with the Fed starting to tighten monetary policy the cool winds of change have sent chills through equity markets. Geoff Wilson, Chairman of Wilson Asset Management, says the market needs to endure tighter monetary conditions... Show More

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The source of this volatility

Livewire Exclusive

Sam Ferraro of Evidente says concerns around China's growth rate are a sideshow to the root cause of the current volatility. Early in January the 17 members of the FOMC who influence the direction and rate of change in US interest rates released their projections for 2016. Of the 17... Show More

us interest rates

Fed raises rates

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

"The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic... Show More

janet yellen the fed us interest rates

Where could rates end up in the US?

PM Capital
PM Capital Fund Manager

It has been nearly a decade since the US market has seen and interest rate rise, so what does a 'normal' setting look like? Jarod Dawson, Director at PM Capital, says investors should be cognisant of the level of stimulus that has been injected into the US economy and that... Show More

fed credit pm capital high yield us interest rates Pmcapital

The Fed risks getting behind the curve on rates

PM Capital
PM Capital Fund Manager

Jarod Dawson, Director & Head of Fixed Income at PM Capital, says there’s risk the market has become complacent on the outlook for US interest rates with a strong US economy potentially placing the Fed behind the curve. Short-term the market has largely priced a 'well telegraphed’ US rate hike,... Show More

Fed minutes confirm 'New Neutral' policy rate settings

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s October meeting offered a surprise… A reading of these minutes both confirmed that this committee expects it will hike in December and that the members clearly wanted to send that message. The surprise was the revelation that the Fed’s staff of Ph.D.... Show More

pimco us interest rates

Where not to invest as the Fed raises rates

Livewire Exclusive

Anticipation is growing that the US Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates in December this year. Should this be the case, it will mark the start of the first rate rising cycle in over a decade. Indeed speculation around when the Fed will start raising rates has become a... Show More

janet yellen us interest rates

JCB Expect FOMC Hike in December - But not as much as expected

Angus Coote
Angus Coote Jamieson Coote Bonds - JCB

JCB has written extensively over the year about the FOMC and rate hiking expectations, stating that it was unlikely the FOMC could hike. That stance was lonely in June and September, when majority views indicated a coming rate rise. We are however changing our view on the back of the... Show More

bonds us interest rates

Inflation now the key ingredient for a US rate rise

Livewire News
Livewire News Livewire

Overnight: "The latest jobs report showed the US economy produced a whopping 271,000 jobs in October, much better than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 5%. The numbers were enough to convince the bond market that the Fed would indeed lift interest rates at its next meeting in December. Yields... Show More

inflation janet yellen us interest rates