5 things I learnt on a recent holiday in Europe
This just in. All the lights are out on a suburban street. A single cough is heard in an otherwise silent office. And a lone tumbleweed makes its way across Sydney's CBD.
No one is there to witness it, though. As you have probably seen on social media, everyone is in Europe.
Having just returned myself after a long-awaited holiday, I thought it may be worthwhile to share some of my musings from my time away. As you'd probably guess, this list is better suited to investors than those planning a holiday themselves - and includes some of the stocks that could benefit.
1. Recession? Never heard of her
We spent a week sailing around the Aegean Sea near Turkey, and let me tell you, I have never seen so many superyachts in my life. At one stage, I saw three yachts anchored near a marina in Göcek, Turkey, that I foolishly assumed were cruise ships. No, I was informed, they were the private megayachts of the ultrawealthy. The greatest tragedy was that I was unable to swindle my way onto one.
The annual inflation rate in Turkey was running at 38.2% in June, and while I am sure we were slapped with a tourist levy thanks to our lacklustre grasp of the language, the cost of dinners in the cramped bays and marinas that we visited was laughable. Every restaurant, mind you, was packed - and not just the "Tripadvisor recommended" ones.
Dinners cost anywhere from AU$250 to AU$500 for a bottle of cheap wine, some dips and one or two mains that we would share. Our biggest cash splash was on three prawns, which thanks to the lack of prices on menus, we gobbled down for a nice AU$100. Bargain! These were modest local restaurants, not fine dining joints. I have never done a runner, but believe me, I was tempted.
Marinas may not be the first asset class investors consider when investing in real estate, but after this holiday, I am definitely tempted. Interestingly, MA Financial recently penned a piece on the subject, which you can read here.
Across the Aegean Sea and over in the UK, I poised myself for signs of recession - knowing full well that the locals there are facing an even greater crunch than we are. But signs there were not. Instead, wealth was on display in force. Imagine designer bags, designer shoes, and men and women alike dripping in designer jewellery.
But then again, LVMH's (EPA: MC) share price is up 25% year to date and 36% over the past year. Hermes (EPA: RMS) stock has lifted 30% and 58% respectively.
Like in Turkey, every restaurant seemed to be fully booked on what was a Wednesday night in London. And it wasn't just the restaurants that were packed, the malls and shopping strips were heaving too.
2. Retail isn't dead
Of course, your girl put her credit card to work whilst gallivanting across Europe. And let me tell you, the malls in Europe and the UK are far from dead. They are packed full like a tin of sardines.
I even visited a Lovisa (ASX: LOV) store while abroad - for research purposes only - and it was RAMMED. I don't think they could have fit more teenage girls in there if they tried. Interestingly, shares in Lovisa are down nearly 10% year to date. At the company's last update, it reported sales were tracking above the previous period. I'm not surprised.
Hollister, in comparison, was completely empty. According to my partner, who is originally from the UK, only a few years ago there were lines out the door. Hollister is owned by Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF). Its share price is up 53% year to date.
For all the furore over tech giants like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) since the beginning of the year, their stores seemed to have more employees than customers in them. Do with that what you will. It also seems like fund managers aren't so hot on the stock at the moment. You can read about that here and here.
3. Everyone smokes
On the street, in restaurants, in bars, in clubs. Everyone is still smoking, in Europe at least. Thanks to ESG-related pressures and obvious health concerns, tobacco companies have been out of favour with investors for quite some time.
That said, they have been quite resilient amidst the past year's market volatility. The share prices of big tobacco companies like Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) and Altria Group Inc (NYSE: MO) are both slightly up over the past year. I personally don't like the idea of investing in tobacco companies, so will leave it at that.
4. Flights are completely packed
My partner and I booked a window seat and an aisle seat in the hope we would get a whole row to ourselves. This was a mistake. Planes are completely packed - chockablock, as we Australians would say. Luckily, the man in between us agreed to swap seats.
This was after we left booking tickets to the last minute - meaning we weren't flying Emirates or Singapore Airlines, but were flying Qantas, Turkish Airlines and Malaysia Airlines - which were completely booked out too. We spent nearly $5,000 on return flights... each (cattle class).
Interestingly, given my anxiety over flying with Malaysia Airlines, our first flight with Qantas (ASX: QAN) on the way over was probably the worst plane that we boarded. This isn't surprising, given that I recently learnt that the average age of a plane in Qantas' fleet is about 15 years.
Investors who had the foresight to invest in travel stocks over overpriced airfare tickets to Europe will likely be laughing straight to the bank. Shares in Flight Centre (ASX: FLT) are up 56% since the beginning of the year. Qantas shares, despite the questionable plane quality, have also lifted more than 12%.
Recently, 1851 Capital's Chris Stott shared that he had added to his position in Flight Centre and was also backing other travel-related stocks, like Corporate Travel Management (ASX: CTD) and HelloWorld (ASX: HLO). He argued that despite the strong performance of these names, the next three to six months still look promising for investors as demand remains elevated.
5. There's more to life than markets (and money)
As much as I would love you to read my articles so that I can pay my bills and fund future holidays, Janet Jackson wasn't wrong when she sang 'The best things in life are free.'
There's nothing better than the eventual relief of diving into the ocean after staggering barefoot over fiery hot pebbles on a sweltering day. Or that feeling where your cheeks and stomach ache from laughing far too hard with friends and loved ones. Or of conquering a lifelong fear of heights by leaping off a cliff into the unknown below.
In Wales, I visited one of the oldest churches in the UK, dated 500 AD. In Rhodes, Greece, I stood below where The Colossus once stood (280 BC).
In the scheme of things, today's market successes and failures are just a blip in humanity's long existence. And at the end of the day, we can't take anything material with us. So I implore you to take the leap, embrace your loved ones, and relish life's big and small experiences.
Trust me, markets will still be here when you get back.
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