7 ASX stocks and ETFs to ride gold’s next leg higher

Gold has stolen the spotlight once more, breaking US$3,500 earlier this week and surging over 1% overnight to a fresh record of US$3,579.

According to Romano Sala Tenna of Katana Asset Management, the recent rally is “in line with our base case" for bullion.

“There are at least seven drivers of the gold price, but the most pronounced is the valuation of the US Dollar. US Government debt is past the tipping point and likely to accelerate," he says.

"Combined with continuing US policy instability and the desire for BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations to decouple from the US financial network, the outlook for the USD continues to be depressed."

Sala Tenna is hardly alone. Analysts also point to US President Donald Trump’s assault on the  Federal Reserve’s independence and Britain’s rising bond yields as fresh catalysts for safe-haven demand. The idea of two of the world’s biggest economies running long-dated yields above 5% is unsettling markets.

Bullion has now gained more than 30% this year, making it one of the best-performing asset classes. While the drivers are well known, this wire unpacks top ideas for investors seeking to ride the momentum.

How high can gold go?

Gold surpassed US$3,400 for the first time in April during the volatility around Trump’s “Liberation Day,” before pausing as investors rotated back into equities. But the break above US$3,400 and past US$3,500 has revived bullish momentum.

VanEck’s Arian Neiron says the technical picture is key:

“The breakout followed several data reports pointing to growing cracks in the US economy, including a rise in core inflation, lower employment growth and a weakening USD," he says.

"Further, dovish comments recently made by Fed Chair Powell have strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut … historically, rate cuts against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty have driven more investors towards gold as a safe haven asset.”

Sala Tenna agrees:

“We don’t assign a price target [to gold], but what we do look at closely is the technical setup, which provides the best guide to net investor sentiment. At present, the gold price is behaving consistent with what we would expect to see from an asset that is likely to appreciate further.”

Research desks at major banks have also retained their bullishness - or become bullish:

• J.P. Morgan: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy, says the bank is “deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold” and sees prices averaging US$3,675/oz in Q4 2025, rising toward US$4,000/oz by mid-2026.

• ANZ Research: Lifted its forecast to US$3,600/oz by year-end, citing “strong and enduring roots” in central bank buying, tariffs and equity market risks.

• Citi: Recently flipped from bearish to bullish, now expecting bullion to trade between US$3,300 and US$3,600/oz in the next three months, citing recession fears and Trump’s tariff agenda.

Consensus is building that gold’s bull run isn’t finished. While timelines differ, the direction of travel is pointing to US$4,000.

7 Expert ideas

Katana: Value in the Vault, plus an emerging opportunity in NZ

Sala Tenna says the Katana Australian Equity Fund currently has ~5% invested in gold equities and related service providers, with scope to lift that weighting if the breakout proves durable.

Within that allocation, the strategy has shifted from large caps to mid-caps as the cycle has matured.

“As the market has progressed and the upside in large cap gold producers has diminished, we have progressed to mid-cap producers,” he says.

His high-conviction pick is Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU), formed last year via the merger of Silver Lake Resources and Red 5. Vault operates three major gold hubs in Western Australia (Leonora, Deflector and Mount Monger) and is advancing a restart project in Ontario, Canada (Sugar Zone).

The stock has jumped about 35% since its FY25 results in August, which showed strong financial performance along with a robust balance sheet. Sala Tenna says VAU has “the most catch-up potential” among mid-caps (a chart from Macquarie further in the article shows the one-year performance of gold stocks so readers can see leaders and laggards).

“The stock has been held back by their hedge book, but this rolls off aggressively over the next 9 months. At that time, we model that the company can generate a free cashflow yield in excess of 30%," Sala Tenna says.

"And, the Board recently initiated its first ever buyback, which is a strong indication of value, stability and their confidence in the outlook.”

Katana has also taken an early position in Santana Minerals (ASX: SMI), which is developing the Bendigo-Ophir deposit in Central Otago, New Zealand.

“A lot has changed in NZ in the past 12 months, and it now rates above every Australian state in terms of permitting approvals and timelines. The deposit is the most exciting discovery in NZ in the past three decades,” says Sala Tenna.

“Initial studies have confirmed a 1 year payback period and IRR of 75% due to its high grade, ease of processing, labour availability and access to water and power.”

Macquarie: Look to the (Northern) Star

Following reporting season, Macquarie published its mid and large-cap preferences.

In the mid-cap space, it also likes Vault for the same reasons as Sala Tenna, alongside Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) and Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM).

“GMD is our top Australian-focused mid-cap pick with a five-year production growth outlook only exceeded by CMM (relies on Mt Gibson),” the analysts noted.

“We now also suspect the company will soon embark on a region-wide expansion project after acquiring the Laverton Gold Project from Focus Minerals; a transaction we viewed as a positive.”

On Capricorn, Macquarie says delivery of the Mt Gibson Gold Project "remains important for CMM’s longer-term outlook", in addition to the Karlawinda Expansion Project.

In the large-cap space, Macquarie has shifted preference from Newmont (ASX: NEM) to Northern Star (ASX: NST). 

“The next NST key data point (aside from Qtly reports) will be the approvals and updated study for Hemi (first half of CY26). We now see ‘clear air’ for NST over the next six months or so, which should give the stock a chance to positively re-rate,” the analysts wrote.

NST also screens best on free cash flow and growth. It has the highest five-year average FCF yield (5%), ahead of Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) (5%) and NEM (4%), and the strongest production growth outlook, with FY30 output forecast to be 54% above FY25 levels.

VanEck: Strong fundamentals for global miners

For ETF investors, VanEck offers exposure to gold in two key ways:

• VanEck Gold Bullion ETF (ASX: NUGG ) Direct exposure to bullion, backed by physical gold stored by The Perth Mint.

• VanEck Gold Miners ETF (ASX: GDX): Invests in over 60 gold equities around the world, mainly in Canada, the US and Australia.

Bullion and miners carry different risk–return profiles. Physical gold serves as a traditional defensive store of value, while miners are more cyclical — benefiting from high gold prices through attractive margins, but facing pressure when prices fall due to their higher operating costs.

Neiron notes gold mining equities have outperformed peers in the broader resources industry for two reasons.

"The first has been the accelerating demand for gold … the second tailwind has been the strong operational performance of gold mining companies, as demonstrated in the recent earnings seasons," he says.

That operational strength is showing up in margins. GDX’s largest holding for example, Newmont, recently reported all-in-sustaining costs of US$1,620/oz, with an expectation to deliver 5.6 million ounces of gold by year-end. Against a spot price of ~US$3,475/oz, that represents a substantial margin.

" Gold mining equities continue to be undervalued on a price-to-earnings basis, which means we could see significant price appreciation when valuations catch up to fundamentals," says Neiron.

"Should the gold price continue to climb, gold miners have even more to gain, given the typical leveraged effect on returns. The sensitivity to gold price movements over the last 10 years has been 2.029x. In other words, a 1% increase in the price of gold should drive a 2.029% increase to gold miners."