A high-conviction precious metals re-rating story

Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE: CDE) is a US-based precious metals producer focused on the exploration, development, and operation of gold and silver mines across North America. Its core assets include the Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada, Kensington gold mine in Alaska, Wharf gold mine in South Dakota, and Palmarejo silver-gold mine in Mexico.

Coeur produces over 300,000 ounces of gold and around 12–15 million ounces of silver annually and is currently in the midst of a major transformation, centred on a multi-year expansion of the Rochester mine. This is expected to significantly increase silver output and lower costs, positioning Coeur as one of the few scalable silver producers in stable jurisdictions.

Company overview

Coeur Mining provides access to precious metals production in politically stable jurisdictions, with potential for operational and valuation upside.

In a sector often dominated by either low-grade legacy miners or high-risk emerging market exposure, Coeur offers a unique middle ground: US-centric production, rising output, and improving cost discipline. Its value lies in its ability to become a more reliable, scaled North American precious metals producer – particularly in silver, where global supply is increasingly constrained.

Over the past two years, Coeur has improved operational transparency, modernised key assets, and recommitted to financial discipline – all of which have started to shift the narrative from survival to growth.‍

Our investment thesis:

• Operational turnaround: Coeur’s multi-year investment cycle is now bearing fruit – especially at the Rochester mine in Nevada, where a major expansion is expected to double silver production and materially lower costs
• High leverage to precious metals: With a relatively high-cost base (for now), Coeur offers strong torque to rising silver and gold prices – meaning small increases in spot prices can significantly improve cash flow
• Stable jurisdictions: All core operations are in the US (Nevada, Alaska, South Dakota) and Mexico, offering geopolitical safety at a time when many competitors are exposed to higher-risk regions
• Potential valuation re-rating: Trading well below NAV and relative to peers, Coeur has upside potential if execution continues improving and silver sentiment strengthens.

‍‍The key risks to this thesis include:

• Delays or cost overruns at the Rochester ramp-up
• Prolonged weakness in silver or gold prices
• A return to dilutive capital raises or undisciplined spending

‍Recent performance

Over the past month, Coeur Mining’s share price has surged more than 60%, driven by a combination of macro tailwinds and company-specific catalysts that are beginning to align after years of underperformance.

On the macro front, silver prices have broken out, rallying above US$30/oz for the first time in over a decade. As one of the more silver-leveraged producers in North America, Coeur is naturally positioned to benefit — particularly as much of its production comes from Nevada (Rochester) and Mexico, with minimal geopolitical risk. The market is clearly beginning to reprice silver’s role in both industrial decarbonisation and as a hedge against fiscal instability.

On the company level, sentiment has shifted sharply in response to operational progress at the Rochester mine, which is now in the early stages of its long-awaited ramp-up. For years, Coeur has been criticised for high costs and heavy capex — but the turnaround is taking shape. Recent quarterly results showing positive free cash flow and a reduction in all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance have added credibility to the story.

Finally, there’s a broader re-rating happening across the silver mining complex, with investors rotating into precious metals equities as a hedge against macro risk and declining real yields. Coeur, long one of the more discounted names in the space, is catching up — fast.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, HM1 (ASX: HM1) holds a position in Coeur Mining.