Amid the rally, which ASX insiders have been buying & selling?

Want to know who is buying and selling their own stock? Join Livewire's Chris Conway for the quarterly insider moves update.
Chris Conway

Livewire Markets

Livewire’s Insider Moves series is back after missing the June quarter update. The Aussie market has been flying, trading near all-time highs, so it will be interesting to see if there have been many cases of directors buying when their stock is ‘cheap’.

I’d hazard a guess that the numbers will be down from the March quarter, when the market was getting hammered, simply because most stocks have been rallying and not providing the same type of opportunity.

In the March ’25 quarter, we saw record levels (both in terms of volume and percentage of overall transactions) of multiple insiders (minimum of three directors) buying when their stock was cheap – i.e. the share price was weaker over both 3-month and 1-year periods (known as ‘buying both weakness’) – as can be seen in the table below.

 

The latest numbers - Transactions that involved NET BUYING

As expected, both the sets of transaction number and the percentage of directors ‘buying both weakness’ were down significantly from the March quarter to the September quarter.

Source: Livewire Markets/Market Index
Source: Livewire Markets/Market Index

There were just 22 sets (a set = three directors or more) of transactions involving net buying in the September quarter – the lowest count since we have been running the series. Again, with markets rallying, there hasn’t been much opportunity to buy stock ‘cheap’ – the dominant condition under which insiders typically buy.

Out of those 22 sets, 10 involved ‘buying both weakness’ – a percentage of 45.5%, which is on par with the average over previous quarters of around 48%.

So whilst there were far fewer sets of transactions on average, the dominant condition for insider buying remains buying when the stock is ‘cheap’.

OBSERVATIONS

  • Of the 22 sets of transactions that involved NET BUYING, 10 of them saw that buying on both 3-month and 1-year weakness (ASX, LAU, 3DA, REG, GEM, WEB, KGN, SHL, AQZ, BAP) - This is once again the dominant category in the data.
  • Four sets (BXB, BBN, MEI, ALQ) saw insiders buying on both 3-month and 1-year strength - these are the momentum riders.
  • Four sets (IDP, PNV, HLS, FMG) saw insiders buying on 3-month strength (despite 1-year negative performance) - this cohort is buying the recovery.

Refresher on the research

For those new to the series, here is some important background information.

When multiple insiders buy or sell, it can tell an interesting story. Don't forget that these insiders are all sitting around the same boardroom table and responding to the same stimulus.

As explained in the first wire that introduced this series, research shows that the percentage of insider trades decreases as the share price moves from 52-week lows towards 52-week highs. Put simply, insiders buy more when their stocks are incredibly cheap and buy less when they are expensive.

This is why it is interesting to examine share price movements over 3-month and 1-year periods in conjunction with transaction sets, to establish the conditions under which insiders are making moves. All of the data above aligns with long-term research, indicating that insiders predominantly buy when share prices have fallen and are trading towards 52-week lows, and buy less when they are trading towards 52-week highs.

Please note that these are simply observations based on the data. We cannot possibly know the true motives behind any director buying or selling stock in their own company (unless they disclose it to the market). The data includes on-market transactions. It does not include rights issues, participation in share purchase plans, options exercised, or dividend reinvestment plans. 

Transactions that involved NET SELLING

Source: Livewire Markets/Market Index
Source: Livewire Markets/Market Index
  • Of the 10 sets of transactions that involved NET SELLING, seven sets (MTO, ZIP, C79, ALL, ALK, HUB, HVN) saw selling both strength - these are insiders selling when their stock has rallied
  • 2 sets (CWY, L1G) saw insiders selling on both 3-month strength
  • 1 set (COH) saw selling both weakness

INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS

Brambles (ASX: BXB)

BXB insider moves in the September  quarter (Source: Market Index)
BXB insider moves in the September quarter (Source: Market Index)

Brambles has been a strong performer over the past 12 months, and it is encouraging to see insiders continue to buy the stock, particularly after the big jump in the share price following the results.

The chart below shows the dates on which the purchases were made. 

BXB insider transactions | Source: TradingView
BXB insider transactions | Source: TradingView

In this wire, Centaur Financials Hugh Robertson highlighted BXB as a 'long-term compounder', and part of his direct equity sleeve, whilst IML's Hugh Giddy said the following of BXB in August, post the results release; 

Brambles has improved their business such that they lose fewer pallets and can offer a better deal to customers who do the right thing for the pallet pool. They are generating good cash flow in what’s quite a weak consumer environment in the US. 

Sonic Healthcare (ASX: SHL)

SHL insider moves in the September quarter (Source: Market Index)
SHL insider moves in the September quarter (Source: Market Index)

Sonic had a disappointing results season. The stock fell 20% after guiding to 25% EPS growth between FY24 and FY26, which was less than the market expected. That share price weakness has prompted insider buying, however, with the stock trading near 52-week lows. The chart below shows the dates on which directors were buying. 

SHL insider transactions | Source: TradingView
SHL insider transactions | Source: TradingView

Livewire's James Marlay spoke to Auscap's Will Mumford late last month, who noted that Sonic is expanding in high-value testing, has a strong international footprint, and could benefit from easing cost pressures, more rational competition, and longer-term trends in automation and AI. With the stock trading below the market multiple, he argues that the volatility has created an opportunity.

Treasury Wine Estate (ASX: TWE)

TWE insider moves in the September quarter (Source: Market Index)
TWE insider moves in the September quarter (Source: Market Index)

Whilst insider buying and selling can tell a story and have some predictive value in anticipating share price movement, like anything, it's not perfect. 

Case in point, the recent moves in TWE. There were numerous directors buying in the September quarter, yet the share price tumbled 15% on Monday after the company dumped earnings guidance and halted a $200 million share buyback. The move lower came after the company informed the market that its latest data showed Chinese drinkers had been consuming less wine during the mid-autumn festival season, negatively impacting earnings forecasts. 

The chart below shows when directors bought in the September quarter. And whilst the share price could very well recover and the directors who purchased are probably still comfortable with TWE's long-term prospects, it's important to remember that insiders won't always get it right - at least not immediately.  

TWE insider transactions | Source: TradingView
TWE insider transactions | Source: TradingView
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Chris Conway
Managing Editor
Livewire Markets

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