Among the main daily traded base metals, tin and copper look like having the firmest market balances over the coming two years
Among the main daily traded base metals, tin and copper look like having the firmest market balances over the coming two years. This is the conclusion from our latest review of supply side adjustments and prospective consumption growth rates. Across the board, inventories are set to rise over the coming two years leaving little upward pressure on prices. As a forecasting tool, market balance analysis suffers an important drawback: industry participants react to the forecasts. If copper inventories look tight, for example, the industry will pump out more. The most important aspect of the analysis is the sensitivity testing it allows. Being able to assess what must happen to get different outcomes and the likelihood of different scenarios permits a better understanding of investment risks.
John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...
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