As dust settles around the Labour Force data, a look at net immigration which continues to slide in 2014. Although short-term Chinese visitors to Australia...

Pete Wargent

As dust settles around the Labour Force data, a look at net immigration which continues to slide in 2014. Although short-term Chinese visitors to Australia continue to rise relentlessly to new record heights, total net overseas migration Down Under has been slowing for months. We take a look at the trends that are playing out benchmarked against our 2014 forecasts. In particular mining states are now slowing, but population into Sydney and Melbourne is soaring, a net result of the mining construction boom having passed its peak. (VIEW LINK)


Pete Wargent

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers - Sydney, Brisbane & London. CEO WargentAdvisory - powerful tactical analysis & leading indicators for fund managers & institutional clients. Real-time analysis: Australian economy, markets, real estate.

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Pete Wargent

Good question. The good news is it will have a long tail - while building approvals have passed their peak, commencements are still trending up quite strongly, so the construction cycle could easily have another 2-3 years to run. We will know more on January 15 when the next round of Building Activity data is released, so watch this space.

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James Marlay

Pete, I have a pretty straight up and down question that I am hoping you can shed some light on. Companies like CSR, Boral, Harvey Norman and the like have all benefited from increased housing construction. I note your comments about the population growth in the eastern stats as well as your commentary on the peak of apartment construction having passed. So (in your view) has the sweet spot for housing passed or is the cycle likely to have a long tail?

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