ASX 200 futures flat, US stocks lose steam + Why inflation could re-accelerate

ASX 200 futures are trading 2 points lower, down -0.01% as of 8:20 am AEST.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS

• S&P 500 fades from session highs of 0.4% to finish slightly lower
• Oil falls almost 2% but finishes the week 2.1% higher
• Bullish focus points for the week: Disinflation momentum, peak Fed as markets now expect just one more 25 bp hike at the July meeting, soft-landing momentum, improvement in market breadth and a good start to Q2 earnings season
• Bearish focus points for the week: No reprieve in Fed’s higher-for-longer messaging, negative signalling for market from recent strength in lower quality stocks and sectors, stretched valuations with S&P 500 trailing PE at over 21 and China remains a global growth disappointment
• Fed Governor Waller backs two more rate hikes (Bloomberg)
• Goldman Sachs strategists see S&P 500 hitting record high by year-end (Bloomberg)
• Global hedge funds scramble to unwind shorts on US stocks (Reuters)
• Rapid decline in inflation a big tailwind for stocks (Yahoo)
• 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks to report over next few weeks, markets brace for strong results to justify premium valuation (Reuters)
• Trough in earnings revisions a positive for profit outlook (Bloomberg)
• Renewed FX market volatility may upend carry trade (Bloomberg)

EARNINGS

It’s been a pretty strong start to the US earnings season with 14 of the 15 companies that reported last week beating consensus EPS expectations. The revenue beat rate was a little softer with 10 of 15 beating sales expectations.

JPMorgan (+0.6%) – Double beat, revenue rose 34% to US$4.2bn thanks to a 44% jump in net interest income to US$21.9bn, raised full-year net interest income outlook.

• Credit quality: "We still do see this as a normalisation, not a deterioration story when we talk about consumer credit. Actually revolved per account has still not gotten to pre-pandemic levels … you know, I think the consumer continues to surprise on the upside here." – CFO Jeremy Barnum

Wells Fargo (-0.3%) – Double beat, also lifted full-year net interest income view.

• Credit quality: “"As expected, net loan charge-offs increased from the first quarter. Consumer charge-offs continued to deteriorate modestly. Commercial charge-offs increased driven by a small number of borrowers in Commercial Banking ..." – CEO Charles Scharf

Citi (-4.1%) – Double beat but revenues fell 1% from a year ago amid the underperformance in markets and investment banking businesses, committed to reach medium-term return targets.

• "Markets revenues were down from a strong Q2 last year, as clients stood on the sidelines starting in April while the US debt limit played out. In Banking, the long-awaited rebound in IB has yet to materialise, making for a disappointing quarter."

ECONOMY

• US consumer sentiment near two-year high in July (Reuters)
• China Q2 GDP growth seen accelerating, propped up by base effects (Reuters)
• China data expected to show reopening recovery fading out, flags the need for more stimulus (Reuters)
• Sources say China's financial regulators invite major global investors to a rare symposium next week (Reuters)
• OPEC sees healthy demand growth of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 (Platts)
• Crude oil surge through US$80 a barrel suggests long-awaited tightening finally starting to gain traction (Bloomberg)
• RBA Deputy Governor Bullock to replace Philip Lowe (Bloomberg)

MARKET INSIGHTS

Sectors to Watch

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in the midst of a pullback despite the positive bank earnings. There was a little bit of a defensive pivot with the Dow finishing higher, led by sectors like Healthcare and Staples. We've talked a lot about the importance of a shallow pullback where volatility does not pick up and weakness is bought into. For the ASX 200, we've only seen the opposite in the past 2-3 months. The Index has seen several 2-5 day rallies, followed by a sharp selloff and an eventual bounce. Will this time be any different?

Our ETF list demonstrates a broad-based pullback with notable weakness across sectors such as Uranium (-3.08%), Jets (-1.88%), Rare Earths/Strategic Metals (-1.87%), Copper (-1.75%) and Semis (-1.25%).

Reporting Season: Pre-Releases

A few companies tend to provide either a) trading updates or b) pre-release results ahead of earnings season. The aim of this is to:

• Lessen the share price move when actual results are released
• Spread catalysts across two events (e.g. revenue and profit figures in pre-released results but finer details during reporting season)
• Reset expectations before earnings season

Below is a list of trading updates from ASX 200 companies since the beginning of June. The stocks have on average declined 4.1% on the day of the announcement.

Some of the interesting observations include:

• Building stocks like Boral (ASX: BLD) and Johns Lyng (ASX: JLG) posted relatively positive updates but were sold into. Both stocks have had a pretty strong year (Johns Lyng kicked off a capital raise shortly after which dragged its YTD performance into the negative)
• A few defensive names like ASX (ASX: ASX), CSL (ASX: CSL) and Cleanaway (ASX: CWY) were also sold off. ASX and CSL updates were rather downbeat and below analyst expectations

Base Effects Coming to an End

Inflation is expressed as a month-on-month and year-on-year figure. The month in which inflation spikes tends to produce the opposite effect a year later, creating the impression that inflation has slowed. This is known as the base effect.

The base effect can diminish over time if inflation levels remain relatively constant, which means that month-on-month inflation figures will likely become the most important metric over the next year.

The BofA chart below says the June CPI print is likely the last favourable year-on-year print. If inflation increases just 0.2% month-on-month, we'll be back at 4.0% at the beginning of next year.