ASX 200 to fall for a fourth straight session, S&P 500 extends selloff as yields spike

ASX 200 futures are trading 63 points lower, down -0.82% as of 8:30 am AEST.

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS

• S&P 500 -1.20%, Dow -0.65%, Nasdaq -1.79%, Russell 2000 -1.37%
• S&P 500 finished lower and near worst levels after rallying 0.88% in early trade
• S&P 500 is trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since Nov-23
• Bond yields continued to tick higher, led by the long end of the curve – The US 10-year yield is now up 25 bps in the last four sessions
• US Dollar Index hits five month high, nears strongest level against the Yen since 1990
• Base and precious metals extended gains, led by gold, copper and silver
• Early optimism and bounce reversed after reports Israel war cabinet was preparing to retaliate “clearly and forcefully,” driving more geopolitical volatility
• Goldman Sachs Sentiment Indicator records its biggest weekly decline and fell to the lowest level in a year (The Market Ear)
• JPMorgan strategists say don't count on upbeat Q1 earnings season (Bloomberg)
• Dollar rally supercharged by doubts over how aggressively Fed can cut rates tr (Reuters)
• Commodities rally complicating central banks' inflation tackling measures, jeopardising near-term rate cut hopes (Bloomberg)
• Base metals rally on US and UK sanctions banning deliveries of Russian supplies which account for 4-6% of global supply (Bloomberg)
• Cocoa reaches another record as West African supply disruption persists (Bloomberg)

ASX TODAY

• ASX 200 set to open lower for a fourth straight session and potentially test the 50-day moving average for the first time since late Nov-23
• Soaring bond yields and risk-off tone to overnight markets will likely weigh on tech, growth and real estate stocks
• ASX quarterly reporting season ramps up tomorrow with BHP, Bank of Queensland and Deterra Royalties due to report March quarter numbers
• Allianz Australia running the ruler over ClearView Wealth (AFR)
• Auckland International reports preliminary March traffic up 12% year-on-year (AIZ)
• Star Entertainment inquiry reveals 'bulk processing' of so-called enhanced customer due diligence checks (AFR)
• Suncorp to launch $300m capital notes 5 offering (SUN)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Apple iPhone shipments down 10% as Samsung regains market share lead (IDC, Bloomberg)
• Tesla laying off more than 10% of employees (Electreck)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB's Simkus says central bank could cut rates three times this year (Bloomberg)
• UBS strategists flag raise odds of Fed hiking and see 6.5% fed funds rate if inflation holds at 2.5% (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• Israel says it has no choice but to retaliate against Iran (Axios)
• Israel said Hamas rejected latest ceasefire proposal as tensions with Iran escalate (Bloomberg)
• Israel's war cabinet meet for second day to determine response options for Iran attack (Washington Post)
• US officials and allies now focusing efforts to minimise Israeli retaliation (Bloomberg)
• Japan PM Kishida may call a general election as early as June (Kyodo)

ECONOMY

• US retail sales up more than expected in March amid a surge in eCommerce (Reuters)
• China's Q1 GDP growth seen likely to slow, keeping up pressure for stimulus (Reuters)

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