ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surge to record closes on Nvidia-fueled rally
ASX 200 futures are trading 32 points higher, up 0.42% as of 8:30 am AEDT.

ASX TODAY
- Companies to report today include Austal, Bapcor, Brambles, Aracadium Lithium, Monash IVF, Perseus Mining, Pexa Group, Sandfire Resources, Block and more
- Aussie Broadband reports mixed 1H results, downgrades full-year view (Announcement)
- Paladin Energy reports 1H net profit from cont ops of $76.8m (Announcement)
- Saint-Gobain’s $4.3bn bid for CSR two years in the making (AFR)
- Bega Cheese upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Barrenjoey, target increased to $4.40 from $3.50
- Eagers Automotive upgraded to Buy from Hold at Bell Potter, but target decrease to $15.20 from $15.65
- Iluka Resources downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA, target cut to $6.85 from $7.0
- Super Retail Group upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, target increased to $16.10 from $15.50
- Tabcorp upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie, but target cut to $0.85 from $0.90
MARKETS
- S&P 500 finished higher, near best levels and logged a new all-time high
- Nasdaq at record highs, marks best session in more than a year
- Nvidia opens 11.3% higher, rallies intraday to close up 16.4%
- Nvidia driving broad-based gains across semiconductor stocks and megacap names like Meta (+3.9%), Amazon (+3.6%) and Microsoft (+2.4%)
- Cool stat – Nvidia makes up over 4% of the S&P 500 and a little over 5% of the Nasdaq
- Nvidia's outlook saves broader market as AI hype continues (Bloomberg)
- Market price in Fed's outlook on rates, reins in aggressive bets on cuts (FT)
- Bond traders positioning for renewed selloff (Bloomberg)
- Nikkei overtakes 1989 high to hit all-time high (Bloomberg)
STOCKS
- Nvidia revenue and guidance exceed lofty expectations on surging AI demand (Reuters)
- Rivian to cut 10% of workforce as production guidance underwhelms (Bloomberg)
- Intel to produce high-end chips for Microsoft (FT)
- Google to will pause the image generation of people (Bloomberg)
CENTRAL BANKS
- FOMC minutes stress need for greater confidence on inflation (Bloomberg)
- Fed Governor Bowman says time to cut rates 'certainly not now' (Bloomberg)
- BOJ watchers fall in line with April rate hike scenario (Reuters)
- Eurozone money markets push back ECB rate cut expectations (Bloomberg)
- BoE's Greene says needs more evidence that UK inflation becoming less entrenched before backing rate cuts (Bloomberg)
GEOPOLITICS
- White House's proposed sanctions on Russia in response to Navalny's death unlikely to include aggressive penalties (Politico)
- Biden administration planning to strengthen restrictions on China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp in wake of Huawei Mate 60 Pro (Reuters)
- Israeli officials push ahead with Rafah offensive though sources say no clear plan for safe evacuation of civilians (Bloomberg)
ECONOMY
- Eurozone PMIs inch towards growth in February (Reuters)
- UK PMIs suggests economy in recovery, inflation persists (Bloomberg)
- Japan government downgrades economic view on slow consumer spending (Reuters)

A Slow Tech Response
Nvidia's results dropped around this time on Thursday – So I figured we'd see a pretty strong response for local tech-related names like Megaport (ASX: MP1), Life360 (ASX: 360) and NextDC (ASX: NXT).
Interestingly, most of these names opened flat or lower on Thursday. It wasn't until around 11:00 am AEDT that they started to realise "oh hang on ... I think the AI trade is back" and started to rally. Classic ASX.
Let' see if this strength kicks on today.

Source: TradingView
Fortescue Earnings Call Highlights
Fortescue (ASX: FMG) shares finished 2.1% higher on Thursday after its reporting better-than-expected half-year revenue, earnings and dividends. Numbers aside, here are the key takeaways from its earnings Q&A.
- Recovering from the late December derailment is on track, with additional rail capacity helping to recover lost tonnes.
- Pilbara decarbonisation program is expected to ramp up in H2, with overall spend for the year within guidance.
- Capital allocation framework continues to prioritise return of capital to shareholders and dividend policy of 50% - 80% remains unchanged
- Two hydrogen projects in Norway and Brazil are being fast-tracked, with Norway likely next for final investment decision (FID)
- No significant issues reported regarding custom clearance delays in China and iron ore demand remains robust despite anticipated scrap supply increase
Qantas Earnings Call Highlights
Qantas (ASX: QAN) shares opened in positive territory on Thursday but sold off intraday to close 6.8% lower. Numbers for the first-half were largely in-line with consensus but generally 3-5% below Jarden estimates. The company's loyalty earnings guidance and FY25 capex also missed expectations.
- Return to pre-COVID earnings seasonality expected, with cost focus and transformation program set for H2
- Commitment to margin targets reiterated, with confidence in domestic market structure and ongoing transformation work
- New aircraft delivery delays due to supply chain issues but flexibility allows for network adjustments
- A$230 million customer experience investment confirmed as ongoing and improvements seen in on-time performance and customer satisfaction.
- Operating cash flow expected to improve in H2 and beyond, supporting both business investment and shareholder distributions
- A$400M buyback commitment reaffirmed but timing dependent on market liquidity
- Consultants engaged to enhance operational performance using global best practices and improvement seen but aim is for better than pre-COVID levels
KEY EVENTS
- Trading ex-div: Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.25, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.18, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.07, Lendlease (LLC) – $0.06, GUD Holdings (GUD) – $0.185
- Dividends paid: Goodman Group (GMG) – $0.15
- Listing: None
- 12:30 pm: China House Price Index (Jan)
- 8:00 pm: Germany IFO Business Climate (Feb)
This Morning Wrap was written by Kerry Sun.
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