ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 rallies to 2-month high as US inflation eases to 3.2%
ASX 200 futures are trading 91 points higher, up 1.29% as of 8:20 am AEST.


S&P 500 SESSION CHART

MARKETS
- S&P 500 opens 1.08% higher, rallies intraday to finish near best levels
- Broad-based rally with only ~20 stocks in the S&P 500 down today
- Yield-sensitive sectors such as Real Estate and Utilities led to the upside
- US 10-year yield down 20 bps to a near 2-month low
- US 2-year yield – Often a good proxy for the Fed’s policy path – Down 22 bps to a 3-month low, reflecting a pull forward in rate cutting expectations
- US 2-year yield marks largest intraday drop since March 2023
- Softer-than-expected US inflation data pushed Fed rate cut odds to ~85% by next June
- BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed big bullish moves as investors cut cash levels to 4.7% or a two year low
- BofA Global Fund Manager Survey notes 74% of respondents see soft or no landing, 76% say hiking cycle is over and a record 61% expect lower bond yields
- Investors turn overweight equities for first time since April 2022 with 2024 playbook of soft landing, lower rates and weaker dollar (Bloomberg)
STOCKS
- Auto industry expanding efforts to cut rare earth EV use (Reuters)
- Airbnb acquires AI startup Gameplanner.AI for US$200m (CNBC)
- Amazon plans to enable users to buy products advertised on Snapchat (CNBC)
- C3.ai signs strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services (CNBC)
KEY EARNINGS
- "Similar to the second quarter, we saw continued customer engagement with smaller projects, and experienced pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories.” – CEO Edward Decker
CENTRAL BANKS
- Narrow majority see BOJ lifting NIRP as the next move (Nikkei)
- BOJ looks to corporate profits, household incomes to boost wages (Reuters)
- Low Eurozone growth may force ECB to ease policy sooner than expected (Reuters)
- BoE to cut interest rates as soon as May, according to economists (Telegraph)
- Fed's Barkin says inflation isn't on a smooth path to 2% (Bloomberg)
CHINA
- PBoC to inject ~$137bn of low-cost financing for housing (Bloomberg)
- China's new bank loans in October fall less than expected (Reuters)
- Beijing orders local governments to cut PPP exposure as debt risk rises (Reuters)
- China stocking up on chipmaking equipment imports (Nikkei)
ECONOMY
- US inflation broadly slows in sign of progress for Fed (Bloomberg)
- US stocks and bonds jump after inflation falls to 3.2% (FT)
- US core inflation hits two-year low (CNBC)
- China activity data forecast to show economy losing momentum(Bloomberg)
- Eurozone Q3 GDP shrinks, Q4 technical recession likely (Reuters)
- German ZEW economic sentiment continues to bounce (Bloomberg)
- Australian consumer sentiment drops following RBA rate hike (Bloomberg)
- UK labor market still showing some signs of resilience (Reuters)

The Biggest Story: US Inflation
A cooler-than-expected US inflation print sent stocks soaring. Here are the key numbers for the October reading:
- Inflation MoM was flat – Below the 0.1% expected
- Inflation YoY eased to 3.2% from 3.7% in September – Below the 3.3% expected
- Core inflation MoM was 0.2% – Below the 0.3% expected
- Core inflation YoY eased to 4.0% from 4.1% in September – Below the 4.1% expected
The key drivers for the cool print include:
- Energy prices fell 2.5% month-on-month after a sharp spike in August and September
- Used cars and trucks prices continued to deflate, down 0.8% month-on-month after a 2.5% drop in September
Core inflation was a slight beat against expectations and remains well-above the Fed's target. The all-important shelter component (which accounts for a third of CPI weighting) is starting to ease.
- Shelter prices up 0.3% month-on-month and up 6.7% year-on-year (from a peak of 8.2% in March 2023)
- Shelter is a lagging indicator that understated housing inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022 while overstating current prices
- Ongoing decline (or catch up) in shelter has been long anticipated
Sectors to Watch: Green Everywhere
It's a bit of a goldilocks scenario isn't it?
- US inflation was cooler-than-expected
- Yields down, US dollar down and VIX down
- Economic data remains resilient
- The market is bouncing back from extreme oversold indicators and bearish positioning
- CNN Fear & Greed Index is at Neutral (more fuel before things get contrarian bearish)
If you look at our above overnight ETF list – Pretty much everything is green with most sectors up 3-5%. And I think that's all that needs to be said today.
What was once an oversold bounce is now turning into a lockout rally (where things are moving in a V-shaped fashion, making it incredibly difficult to find entries).
Key Events
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
- Trading ex-div: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Dicker Data (DDR) – $0.10
- Dividends paid: Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.04, Autosports Group (ASG) – $0.10
- Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
- 10:50 am: Japan Q3 GDP Growth
- 1:00 pm: China Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment
- 1:00 pm: China Unemployment Rate
- 6:00 pm: UK Inflation Rate
- 12:30 am: US Producer Price Index
- 12:30 am: US Retail Sales