At the start of the year I said that in 2013 the US economy was still in intensive care, but this year will see it go back to the ward and in 2015 it will be...
At the start of the year I said that in 2013 the US economy was still in intensive care, but this year will see it go back to the ward and in 2015 it will be back to full health. Well after years of strong medicine, some known and some experimental, it appears that the balance sheet adjustment is well advanced and the patient is going home earlier than expected. I have written many times, that the two missing pieces to the US recovery this year are increases in business investment and wages growth and until those arose the recovery would not be sustainable. Last month's employment report may represent the first credible signs of the latter falling into place with wages growth up +0.4% in a single month. However, does this pull forward a US Fed rate hike? The bulls say yes, because the central bank will not make the same mistake of lifting rates too late when the recovery was evident, and the bears say no because the non-labour market data remains patchy. Read more: (VIEW LINK)
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