us economy

Latest news and analysis on us economy

Macro

The return of the term premium

The return of the term premium, which could increase given the deteriorating fiscal outlook, points to the risk of higher US bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The end of the COVID-era migration boom

The massive migration-led boom in population growth is over, with growth back at pre-pandemic levels in most countries, including Australia
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The tail risk of a spike in oil prices

If the tail risk of a spike in oil prices is realised, history shows oil shocks often contribute to deeper-than-normal recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Equities

Why we're in a stock market soap opera

Fundamentals and hard data count for little in this emotionally-charged market.
Tom Stelzer
Livewire Markets
Macro

The drivers of higher US bond yields

Higher US bond yields reflect a higher expected future real short rate, the return of a real term premium & higher expected inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Equities

Could this flashing warning signal sink the ASX 200 rally?

Surging treasury yields signal major debt and economic risk for the US. Could it torpedo the rally in stocks? What investors must watch now.
BHP
+9
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
Macro

Are US Treasuries no longer a safe haven?

In all the chaos of the past few weeks in the world of financial markets, the most alarming development has been the rise in US bond yields, even while stock markets...
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
Macro

US rejig of tariffs makes little difference to the bottom line

Rejigged US "reciprocal" tariffs target China, where the increase in the US effective tariff rate is broadly unchanged from last week.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Aggressive US tariffs pressure China for a forceful response

To date, the Trump administration has raised the US tariff on Chinese imports from about 22% to 76%.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US tariffs point to a sharp US contraction & global downturn

The latest US tariffs plus extreme policy uncertainty point to a sharp decline in US output and the risk of a synchronised global downturn
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The US economy could contract in Q1 as spending broadly stalls

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed looks overly optimistic on the US outlook

IMF analysis suggests that the Fed is too optimistic on the likely impact of initial Trump tariffs.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US consumers send stagflationary signals about the outlook

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US stocks tumble from an expensive starting point

The correction under way in US equities has started from a point of extremely expensive valuations relative to earnings and bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
The Rules of Investing

Steve Johnson: Two small caps on a run and the uncovered gems that could be next

Steve Johnson has refined his process for identifying small cap opportunities over 14 years. Here’s what’s catching his eye right now.
CCL
+3
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
Macro

February 2025 Podcasts

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Trump: Crash or crash through?

Trump has begun an unprecedented attack on the norms of US lawmaking. The scale and scope of the attack are significant and mostly unconstitutional. The two most...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Wishful thinking: the Trump administration's "3-3-3" economic plan

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Trump starts a global trade war

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The consensus is wrong: America’s economy is chronically ill

Its GDP is growing – but relies upon mammoth, debt-fuelled deficits. Without this “stimulus” the U.S. would’ve been in recession since 2009.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
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