"Now, data is interesting but we're not really interested in it... We look at others' loyalty programs and their big data schemes and we really question the true value that’s delivered to customers...What we'd rather do is keep our business simple, focus on what matters most to customers, because it’s... Show More
Is the next US downturn years away, or just around the corner? Either way, leading US economist, Professor Jeffrey Frankel, says it will be severe. And the reason, he says, is the Trump administration’s relentless pursuit of fiscal expansion and financial deregulation. Show More
Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More
As global rates start to rise, Australia may follow in the short-term, but structural issues will prevent the RBA from hiking rates far, explains Chris Watling, CEO of Longview Economics. Any rate-hikes from the RBA will be short-lived, he says, and those structural issues will force Australian rates to zero. Show More
The US is going higher. We cannot ignore what we are seeing: momentum has taken over. Trump’s speech (where all you could hear was clapping & standing ovations all through it) will absolutely kill the bears. They have been talking about this speech being the “trigger”, but it wasn’t and... Show More
PM Capital income securities portfolio manager Jarod Dawson believes the value of 10-year US government bonds could fall more than 20% because the US economy is doing a lot better than most people think. While a strong US economy is good news for most, the accompanying hikes in US interest... Show More
Bond-king Bill Gross labelled global central banks’ $12 Trillion balance sheets as ‘methadone’ for investors, as they continue to crave debt and low rates. Without it, he says the US economy would sink into recession. “A 2.45%, 10-year U.S. Treasury rests at 2.45% because the ECB and BOJ are buying... Show More
The stock market is on a tear and business confidence is soaring. The big question is whether this will change the way companies allocate capital. For years they have paid out much of their bumper profits in share-buybacks, rather than investing more in the economy. Donald Trump hopes that by... Show More
Global growth remains weak while US recovery is beginning to give the US Fed comfort in moving on their tightening rate cycle. China, Europe and Japan are expected to deliver more stimulus while US beginning to see early signs of inflation. Even with the recovering US yields, Aussie financials are... Show More
Only four months ago, markets were gripped by deflationary fear and the prospect of a US recession. The outlook has since brightened: asset prices have rallied, inflation readings have risen sharply, macro data has improved, and central banks have softened their tone. Is this a shift in US fundamentals, or... Show More
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor of the Telegraph says “The US has exported its first shipment of natural gas in a historic move that shifts the balance of power in the global energy market and kicks off a struggle with Russia for market share. Surging US supply over the next... Show More
Aussie market started positive with miners before banks joined in to push it even more to close just above the psychological 5000 mark. The morning strength in miners was due to recent strength in Iron Ore, but the main catalysts are post Chinee New Year re-stocking and some supply side... Show More
Global bourses have been on a roller coaster ride this year. In order for stock prices to hit a durable floor, the Fed has to back off from its tightening bias, thereby triggering a reversal in U.S. dollar strength… Meanwhile, U.S. economic recession risk has ratcheted higher despite declining oil... Show More
The weakness seen so far this year started with declines in the Chinese share market and currency, sparking renewed concerns about the Chinese economy, not helped by some soft manufacturing data in the US and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and around North Korea. There could still be more... Show More
Uday Cheruvu, Portfolio Manager at PM CAPITAL, thinks that it is almost a certainty that the Fed will raise rates this week, given Janet Yellen’s comments over recent weeks. However, he doesn’t think this should be viewed as a negative. “It tells us that the Fed is confident enough about... Show More
The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi. As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability... Show More
Jarod Dawson, Director & Head of Fixed Income at PM Capital, says there’s risk the market has become complacent on the outlook for US interest rates with a strong US economy potentially placing the Fed behind the curve. Short-term the market has largely priced a 'well telegraphed’ US rate hike,... Show More
Whether the Fed raises rates in December or in March of next year is ultimately inconsequential. The key take away should the Fed choose to raise interest rates, is that they are doing so because the underlying economy in the US is improving. Uday Cheruvu, Portfolio Manager at PM Capital,... Show More
In this thematic discussion Shane Oliver from AMP Capital and David Bassanese from BetaShares share their insights and opinions into the macro themes impacting investment markets. From an international perspective the discussion touches on the low inflation environment facing the Fed, how this compares to the longer term historic average... Show More
"U.S. wholesale inventories rose more than expected in June, the latest indication that the economy grew at a faster pace in the second quarter than reported last month. Show More