us economy

High inflation and unsustainably low unemployment echo the inverted yield curve in signalling a high risk of a US recession.

Analysis of the recent US bank turmoil indicates the issue is contained to smaller banks, which comprise less than 3% of the system.

Economist Janu Chan argues we should still be worried. The big question is how much.

The US labour market is past its peak, but still remains very tight despite higher interest rates.

Throughout history, many, many, banks have failed. In the US, bank failures are surprisingly common and even in more recent times – the Federal Deposit Insurance...

After a 4.65% increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that...

Oh inflation. For so long, you lay dormant, so much so that policymakers were complaining that there wasn’t enough of it. Last month has seen renewed concerns with...

US inflation came in higher than expectations. Now, month-to-month inflation numbers can be volatile. But there are more than a few data points in this report that are...

US inflation came in around expectations. It is probably getting better, but there is still the opportunity to see what you want in the numbers. If your view is that...

In the context of the bond market signalling a US recession in late 2023/early 2024 - where CCI has been forecasting a recession since earlier this year - we have...