us economy

Tech prices having swung from consistently falling over recent decades to posting large gains, although non-tech inflation is also high.

Tariff revenue - which pays for most of the US government's tax cuts - is running behind forecasts in the near term.

AI will boost productivity, but the question is can companies will make an adequate return on their investment to justify lofty valuations.

Upside risks to global inflation from the energy shock have abated, but US inflation is still too high, pointing to higher interest rates.

The tech sector has accounted for the bulk of recent US economic growth, pointing to a speed limit for growth of about 2½%.

The Fed now narrowly expects one rate hike this year. Policy rules point to a peak in the funds rate of about 4½% (previously around 4%).

Analysis suggests there is merit to Warsh arguing that trimmed mean inflation is better than the traditional core PCE series.

Core inflation remained strong ahead the spike in energy prices. The Fed will talk tough on inflation risks as it shifts to a neutral bias.

The Fed is formally forecasting a couple more rate cuts, but CCI's policy rules continue to point to a higher funds rate.

Markets look strong, but risk looms as hope for a Donald Trump TACO deal collides with the threat of a destabilising Middle East shock.