AUDUSD - Large monthly falls offer no predictive quality. We note that the AUDUSD is down more than -5% for the month of September

AUDUSD - Large monthly falls offer no predictive quality. We note that the AUDUSD is down more than -5% for the month of September. For many casual observers a fall of this magnitude may offer some predictive quality. However, running a test of all monthly falls of more than -5% reveals that the forward outlook for the AUDUSD is consistent with random. Since December 1983, 3-months post a monthly decline of more than -5% the AUDUSD was up on average by 0.73% with a win rate of 62%.