Bad night for precious metal bulls last night with bullion under pressure, slammed down twice, first into the $1360 range (halting trading) and again later in the day once the market 'digested' the Fed minutes, leading to another halt, and a fall in prices below USD $1250, whilst silver is now below USD $20. Low inflation prints, 'negative deposit rate' noise out of Europe and Fed minutes obviously all held gold down, even though data released on the day was mostly soft. Retail sales were above expectations, but ex auto's, on an annualised basis, were up only 3.5%, well below where they were in January (closer to 6%). Hardly a sign of a strengthening economy a year into QE3 Existing home sales fell by more than expected, and mortgage applications declined again, as higher borrowing costs crimp demand. Nevertheless, bears are in command, and USD $1200 gold could be on the cards soon
ABC Bullion Chief Economist. Gold bull since early 2000s, have spent +20yrs working in investment analytics, research & portfolio construction. Author of two books on investing in gold and causes of the GFC. Lover of markets, competition & technology
It's hard to see what would drive gold up from here, unless Yellen drives a change in policy back toward lower rates (or the negative rates she talked about)! If US real rates remain positive, I can envisage a period of range-trading coming, perhaps between $900 to $1400.
2 halts in trading ... not a good look for gold. Did you see the death cross on the weekly chart recently buddy? Not a good look for gold either - http://i.imgur.com/sKsA4IB.png
agree - market is desperately looking for a catalyst - going to be a tough end for 2013 and early 2014 no doubt .
Hadn't seen that weekly cross no - surprised they didn't get closer in the correction in 08 - keen to see what it looked like back in the 74-76 correction too. What are your thoughts now mate - $1000 on the cards?