Bell FX: The Australian dollar is lower at 0.9300 amid fears that tapering of US economic stimulus could begin soon

Bell Potter

Bell FX: The Australian dollar is lower at 0.9300 amid fears that tapering of US economic stimulus could begin soon. A disappointing NAB business survey yesterday, showing a sharp fall in business confidence in October, also drove the AUD lower. Business confidence fell to 5 points in October, from 12 in September, according to the survey. Actual business conditions remained subdued at minus 4pts. The latter implies an economy growing at say 2¾%, below trend of 3%. This implies unemployment will rise ahead and possibly delay a rate cut until May next year. Emerging markets assets continue under pressure with the prospect of an early start to Fed tapering. Brazil's stock market slumped 1.6% overnight and is now 8¼% off its 22 October high, driven down by oil companies, as the price of oil slumps. Today's Forecast Range: 0.9350 - 0.9425


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