BHP could double CBA's market cap. Regal's Charlie Aitken explains why.

It was a week of heavyweight results on the ASX, but none were more notable than that of The Big Australian (aka BHP Group). The $330 billion market-cap materials behemoth delighted investors not only with a bumper full-year dividend of US$8.7 billion but also with a compelling long-term growth outlook fueled by its burgeoning copper business.

​In a note to investors, Regal Funds Management’s Charlie Aitken says not only was the result a clear highlight for the week, but it also looks better and better as the reality of a sluggish domestic economy is borne out in the results of other ASX industrial companies.

​“Pound for pound, BHP was the standout result of the ASX reporting season this week. As overvalued and growthless domestic industrials succumb to reality, BHP’s results and outlook appear better relatively and absolutely by the day,” writes Aitken.

​BHP’s CFO Vandita Pant said the miner's copper production is set to increase by 50% by the mid-2030s with three major copper projects to come online over the next 12 - 18 months. These growth plans are expected to be self-funded while still leaving a surplus for capital management.

​“BHP will have $35 billion of attributable free cash flow after we have invested in the whole growth plan over the next five years,” Pant told Livewire.

​Demand for commodities, such as copper, is one of the few bright spots for the domestic economy. In June 2025, CBA commanded a $137 billion premium to BHP; today, BHP's premium to CBA is $65 billion. This aggressive rotation has caught Aitken’s attention, and he believes it has important ramifications for Australian equity portfolios.

​“A net A$200B+ market cap rotation from CBA to BHP is extremely material for Australian equities, particularly when you take into account the dominance of passive strategies and the second derivative ETFs. As I always say, “passive follows, it doesn’t lead”.​

So what comes next?

​Aitken argues that this recent rotation could be the beginning of a prolonged trend driven by both top-down macro factors and bottom-up fundamentals:

• ​BHP (GDP+ Tailwinds): Powered by its copper engine (54% of group EBITDA), the miner sits squarely in the slipstream of the AI hyperscaler capex boom, global electrification, and rising defence spending. With a widening global supply deficit, Aitken believes copper prices could easily exceed consensus estimates.
• ​CBA (GDP- Headwinds): Australia’s largest mortgage bank faces a tough domestic climate: slowing credit growth, softening house prices, margin pressure, and rising bad debts, all squeezing earnings per share.

​Where consensus gets it wrong

A second leg to Aitken’s thesis revolves around the disconnect in analyst forecasts. Investment banks expect BHP’s earnings to go backward over the next three years, a scenario he believes discounts the widening supply deficit in copper.

​“They broadly continue to forecast that commodity prices revert to the cost curve, something that hasn’t happened in iron ore for 15 years and in my view is highly unlikely to occur in copper either.”

Conversely, consensus expects CBA's earnings to grow each year through FY29, a trajectory that Aitken views as plausible but far from certain.

​“I would suggest while that is not impossible, it is an extremely optimistic view considering the macro-overlay.”

​Aitken believes consensus forecasts underestimate BHP’s true earnings and its payout potential. BHP’s recent dividend blowout is a case in point, and with BHP yielding more than CBA and offering real upward earnings revisions, Aitken sees a scenario where BHP could almost double CBA's size.

​“My gut feel is in a few years’ time that BHP’s ASX200 index weight will be around 15% and CBA’s circa 8.5%. Yes, I’m basically saying I can see a scenario where BHP is double the market cap of CBA. If that proves even vaguely right, the ramifications for Australian equity portfolio construction are large.”