Buy Hold Sell: 5 ASX playmakers making things happen

This year's NRL Finals have been dominated by the players with the magic touch showing up when needed.

But which companies are doing the same thing on the ASX? Who are the real MVPs and who are the also-rans? 

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, Livewire's Tom Stelzer is joined by Tim Riordan from Blackwattle and Brenton Saunders from Pendal to offer their verdicts on the companies showing strong game management and delivering on the big stage. 

Our guests also bring the ASX innovator they think has a winning strategy right now. 

This episode was filmed Wednesday, 24th September, 2025.

Other ways to listen:

• Spotify
• Podbean

Edited transcript:

Tom Stelzer: Hello and welcome to Livewire’s Buy Hold Sell. I'm Tom Stelzer. It's the NRL Grand Final this week, and so we're taking a look at the playmaker stocks that are bringing the innovation. These are the Nathan Cleary and Nicho Hynes of the ASX — the companies with the magic touch and strong game management. But to separate the MVPs from the pretenders, I'm joined by Tim Riordan from Blackwattle and Brenton Saunders from Pendal. Thanks for joining us, guys.

NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) 

Tom Stelzer: We're going to start off with data centre operator NextDC. Tim, I’ll come to you — is that a buy, hold, or sell?

Tim Riordan: (SELL) Look, we're a sell on NXT. I guess the key challenge for us is the outworking of the business model. We just don't get the returns. We see the attractiveness of the space — the market is absolutely firing in terms of demand for data centres, particularly driven by AI. That thematic runs wild, so we can understand the appetite.

But when we work through it from a quality perspective, we struggle. You can see EBITDA growth, yet assets grow even faster, led by capital raises. Underlying, we struggle with the idea that we're being properly compensated for deploying that capital. The business is growing so quickly, deploying capital ahead of the returns.

If we look at the older cohort of data centres, again, we’re seeing really modest returns. Then we think about the customers: we’re talking about some of the biggest hyperscalers globally, the likes of Amazon and Microsoft. Those guys don’t pay a lot if they don’t have to. So our thinking is there’s just some risk that the returns investors are banking on don’t eventually come through. For playmaker-type stocks, we think there are better alternatives out there.

Tom Stelzer: Tim touched on it there — it’s one of the big narratives at the moment. Brenton, you — buy, hold, or sell?

Brenton Saunders: (HOLD) I’m going to hold on this one. It’s a very divisive stock. The CEO considers himself the playmaker — sadly, he’s not in the Nathan Cleary genre.

The narrative behind demand for their product is just next level and accelerating. It’s hard not to be seduced by that. And the realisation is that most of the product they’re selling is such a core, almost binary risk for their customers that they can’t afford not to have it. But monetising that is the real challenge, because it’s an incredibly capital-intensive business.

The primary risk of not owning the stock — and that’s why we do own some — is that strategically, both regionally and globally, it’s not one of the biggest players, but it’s probably one of the highest quality and has the best land bank of all the developing players. So the potential for it to get acquired is reasonably elevated, I’d say. In the mid-cap space, that’s one of the main characteristics — I’m always dealing with three or four takeover situations, and this one definitely fits that category.

Against it, though, is what Tim said: lack of pricing power, competing with the biggest players in the business, very long-dated returns, and very high capital intensity. It’s tapped the market three or four times in the last couple of years, which has been frustrating and keeps smacking the share price. It’s pretty divisive. So those are the two considerations: outsized demand for high-quality product weighed against capital intensity and long-dated returns.

ALS Ltd (ASX: ALQ) 

Next stock is testing service provider ALS. Brenton, I’ll stay with you — buy, hold, or sell?

Brenton Saunders: (BUY) That’s definitely a buy for us at the moment. As playmakers go, I wouldn’t put these guys as captain of the grand final team, but the acquisitions and changes they’ve made — particularly in the minerals services business under new management in the last three or four years — have been very positive.

We’re strongly predisposed to the existing management team. They have good experience, good continuity, and we think they’re running a good business. Probably the biggest attraction is cyclical. Anybody that’s looked at the gold price recently will realise it’s very high. We’ve got gold companies pouring through our offices, walking about 12 foot tall, deploying a lot of capital in exploration and building new mines. That’s absolutely core business for ALS’s minerals division, which is still its biggest and most levered division.

Even though, by historic standards, its multiple is relatively extended, it’s hard to bet against a business like this when it’s got such a big cyclical tailwind. So we’re definitely a buy. 

Tom Stelzer: Tim, what about you — buy, hold, or sell?

Tim Riordan: (BUY) Yeah, I’d echo Brenton’s stance. We’re a buy as well.

Some of the things that stand out for us when looking at high-quality businesses — even cyclical ones like ALS — are the diversification of the business and how management has deployed capital over the last 10 to 15 years. They’ve improved the cyclicality by expanding into life sciences, environmental testing, pharma testing, and the like, shifting away from just metallurgical testing.

That consistency of returns really stands out. Revenues can grow mid- to high-single digits — not shooting the lights out, but consistent. Then they layer on capital returns into M&A, which they’ve done successfully. That consistency, which we seek in quality businesses, drives compounding returns for shareholders.

If you compare this to other cyclical industrials, especially post-COVID, the consistency of returns has been enormous — outperforming mid-cap indices by over 50% since COVID. That’s a continuation of a longer-term trend. So yeah, it’s hard to bet against this one. It’s a buy for us.

Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) 

Tom Stelzer: You’ve both touched on it there, but another big trend at the moment is obviously gold. That gets us to our third name, Capricorn Metals. Tim, I’ll stay with you — buy, hold, or sell?

Tim Riordan: (BUY) Capricorn’s a buy. We really like what the team at Capricorn have done.

When we look for quality in mining businesses, there are two big things: the team and the asset. The team here would challenge any other. Some of the core team have worked together across three corporates now, over 20 years. They approach every mine they build and operate with consistency, producing steady output quarter after quarter, with a focus on strong cashflow.

Capricorn currently operates one mine and is developing a second. Within two years, we should see a near tripling of production. That expandable nature of their assets is very attractive.

They’re also very conservative, deploying modest levels of capital. For example, they bought Mount Gibson in 2021 for about $40 million. That asset could be valued at close to $2 billion. Yes, there’s been a huge gold tailwind — I’ll let the audience decide where gold goes from here — but the way the team runs the assets is very conservative and consistent. That’s why it’s a buy for us.

Tom Stelzer: Brenton, what about you — buy, hold, or sell?

Brenton Saunders: (BUY) Yeah, we’re definitely a buy too. I’d echo a lot of what Tim said.

For us, three things stand out. First, simplicity. These people know exactly what they’re good at and what they do well. They prefer to operate in WA, where they know the environment, regulatory regime, procurement, and service providers.

Second, they’re one of the lowest-cost producers in Australia, with a very good management team that executes well.

Third, growth. For us, a mid-cap must have either a very big addressable market or inherent organic growth. Capricorn has that, particularly through the Mt Gibson acquisition, and it’s entirely organically funded. We’re not worried about them coming back to the market to raise money — they’re incredibly cash generative and can easily fund a doubling of the business.

Add in the tailwind of high AUD gold prices, and it’s a big plus. And finally, alignment — employees and the exec team are heavily incentivised through stock with strict hurdles. Few companies are as aligned with shareholders as this one. For them, it’s about exactly what you want it to be.

Genesis Minerals (ASX: GMD) 

Tom Stelzer: We’ve also asked our guests to bring a stock they think has a winning strategy right now. Brenton, I might come back to you — what have you got?

Brenton Saunders: I’ve got the other captain in the gold space — Genesis Minerals (GMD). Not dissimilar to Capricorn, you’ve got a proven management team who’ve done it before at Saracen and Northern Star, and are doing it again.

Their competitive advantage is strong local knowledge — half the team went to the Kalgoorlie School of Mines, so they know the region inside out. They also have strong organically funded growth, which puts them at the forefront of consolidating companies around them.

This management team is incredibly capable and considered — they reinvest in the business, don’t rely heavily on external capital, and add value consistently. And importantly, they’re conservative — if they say they’ll do 10 ounces a month, they’ll probably do 11. As a shareholder, you’re not worried about nasty surprises.

Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) 

Tom Stelzer: Tim, what name do you have for us?

Tim Riordan: We’ve got WiseTech. We think it’s an interesting playmaker stock.

It’s a super high-quality company with strong financial metrics, a global product set, and a huge opportunity to grow. The absence of competitors at scale has supported its development, and that doesn’t look like it’ll change soon.

What sets it apart now are two things: development of AI tools, and the recent E2open acquisition. Layering that acquisition in with expected synergies over the next 18 months sees it trading on almost half the multiple it’s historically traded on. It’s tended to sit around 45x EBITDA, but at current levels it’s closer to 25x.

Yes, management has had some turnover, so there’s proving out to do. But if they execute on new products and integrate E2open well, you’ve got a high-quality stock trading at half its usual multiple. In our experience, that doesn’t last. So proof will be in the pudding, but we think it’s very attractive at the moment.

Tom Stelzer: That’s all for this episode. Thanks to Tim and Brenton. If you want more Buy Hold Sell, make sure to check out Livewire’s YouTube channel.