...Or that is what some equity pundits masquerading as bond experts want you to believe. They predict that a ‘bondcano’ of rising interest rates will lead to collapsing prices for bonds and bond-like proxies. Show More
In Australia, the outlook remains mixed, labour market and confidence metrics have remained solid early in the year and this is expected to continue. Yet other activity indicators continue to suggest a more modest pick up in growth may be expected with limited price pressures. Show More
For the last few years the Australian economy has been meandering between 2-3% growth. This remained the case through last year with December quarter GDP up just 0.4%, and annual growth of 2.4% as a bounce a year ago dropped out. In the quarter growth was helped by consumer spending... Show More
Growth vs value is a well-documented discussion in stock investing. It describes two fundamental approaches or styles to investing where in a basic sense, the growth approach seeks to invest in companies that exhibit strong growth characteristics (whether this be in the sales, earnings and/or cash flow of a company),... Show More
Stephen Koukoulas writing for FIIG Securities says that financial markets which usually yawn on budget night will be a little more focussed this year. They'll be looking for any signs of policy loosening, any debt and deficit risks and other policy changes aimed at sweetening the electorate: Show More
Although confronted with a maturing growth cycle and the likelihood of more modest returns, the catalysts typically leading to past downturns appear largely absent - such as sharply tighter monetary or fiscal policy and financial crises. Notwithstanding our sense that 2018 is a year to stay positive, we have highlighted... Show More
Given recent headlines and speculation with respect to commodity prices, I thought it worthwhile to outline my views on the near-term picture. Overall, I remain very optimistic with respect to prices and demand. In particular, recent positive Chinese commodity demand data and outcomes from the recent Chinese Communist Party Congress,... Show More
According to forecasts from earlier this year by the World Bank, the global economy is expected to average a Real GDP growth rate of 2.8% between 2017-2019. This infographic from Visual Capitalist looks at individual countries between 2017-2019, based on their individual growth projections from the World Bank, to see... Show More
The International Monetary Fund has built a reputation as an unbiased forecaster. The IMF has a pretty optimistic outlook for the Australian budget for the next couple of years. They believe that the Australian budget deficit will decline from 2.7% of GDP in calendar 2016 to 2.2% of GDP in... Show More
The market is expecting US growth to rebound from its temporary hiatus in the March quarter, and for China's growth to slow only modestly this year. If both of those things happen the equity train can stay on the rails for a while longer, with growth being neither too hot... Show More
How are Australia’s states and territories performing? Each quarter CommSec attempts to find out by analysing eight key indicators: economic growth; retail spending; business investment; unemployment; construction work done; population growth; housing finance and dwelling commencements. Show More
We recently attended the well supported Capital Economics (CE) Conference on The Outlook for Global Growth. In total there were more than 90 slides and charts presented. At the risk of over-simplification, 6 key points stood out to us: Show More
The defensive bull-market that saw the safe companies, and secular growth stocks, rally to unsustainable highs ended in August 2016. This rally appeared to be unprecedented in both magnitude and duration. Multiples of these stocks have compressed significantly since then, as rising interest rates and global growth outlook burst the... Show More
The lists of the best performing and worst performing stocks in the ASX200 during 2016 told a dramatic narrative of a reversal of fortunes between growth stocks and resource stocks. One month into 2017, and we have evidence of this continuing. BHP and RIO are up 11.2% and 14.4% year-to-date... Show More
The first half of FY2017 has certainly delivered some unexpected outcomes - Donald Trump's election as the 45th President of the United States and the following positive market reaction stunned the world. Amidst the resulting volatility in bond and equity markets lies a wealth of opportunity for those who care... Show More
The US economy is already in its eighth year of expansion, albeit one of sub-par GDP growth until recently. S&P 500 earnings are near all-time highs, as are equity indices and valuations. Goldman Sachs’ global strategy team points out that the US has followed a fairly typical equity cycle post... Show More
Different investment styles (such as value, growth, large cap, small cap) are suited to different stages of the investment cycle but it is often difficult to know ahead of time which one will perform best. Pioneering academic research by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, both professors at the University of... Show More
Cyclical stocks, financials, low price-to-book/price-to-earnings ‘value’ stocks, and resources have all been on a run recently. Meanwhile, high price-to-earnings growth stocks and ‘yield plays’ such as infrastructure and REITs have been sold off. The perennially popular healthcare sector has sold off more than 10% in the last three months. A... Show More
Generational low interest rates are symptomatic of lower growth and inflation, made acute by central banks reacting to structural factors such as ageing populations, integration of savings rich economies into the world economy, offshoring and more recently deleveraging and excess export capacity. Increasingly, there is mounting evidence that distortions are... Show More
Many investors currently feel sandwiched between accepting low growth on one hand, and having to pay gross prices for high-growth stocks on the other. Gone, it seems, are the days where you could pay a fair price for a wonderful business – forcing you to accept lower returns by paying... Show More
