Cameron Gleeson on the number hiding beneath the ASX's worst week since April
A soft US CPI, growing signs of Australian household stress and a gold position worth revisiting. Cameron Gleeson on the week in markets.
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The ASX 200 was down over the last week, but Betashares Senior Investment Strategist Cameron Gleeson says taking a closer look at the numbers is more valuable than a simple headline. Defensives did what they are supposed to do and cushioned the blow, making the dispersion beneath the ASX a key story this week.
Also on Gleeson’s radar was the US inflation data, which has cooled the chances of a rate hike any time soon and, combined with some other metrics, paints a positive picture for global equities. On the other side of the equation, some of the big names reporting this week showed growing evidence of household weakness in Australia.
In this Q&A, Gleeson explains why Betashares trimmed its exposure to gold in its managed accounts, how the growth of the Australia 200 ETF (A200) is a reflection of the way investors are building the core of their portfolios, and why the provider has added to its diversified ETF range.
What’s the most recent ETF you launched and why?
Our most recent launch was an expansion of our Diversified ETF range, with four new funds – adding to our growing Diversified All Growth ETF (DHHF).
Three funds - the Diversified Balanced ETF (DVBA), Diversified Growth ETF (DVGR) and Diversified High Growth ETF (DVHG) - provide all-in-one portfolios of Australian and global shares and bonds, with different mixes of growth and defensive assets to suit different risk profiles.
We also launched the Diversified Credit Income ETF (DCRD), which brings together a diversified portfolio of Australian bank and corporate credit with the aim of providing regular monthly income and relative capital stability.
The common thread is making portfolio construction simpler and more cost-effective, whether investors are looking for a complete diversified portfolio or an income-focused defensive allocation.
Which ETF in your suite received the most flows this month and why?
Our Australia 200 ETF (ASX: A200), received the strongest flows across our range in July, attracting around $270 million and helping push the fund well past $10 billion. It’s grown to become one of the biggest ETFs on the ASX now, reflecting the way investors are increasingly using Betashares to build the core of their portfolios.
What is the most recent investment you have trimmed or sold from a portfolio rebalance, and why did this stand out?
Back in May the Betashares Investment Committee, which I am a member of, decided to trim the gold exposure within our managed account portfolios. We originally added gold to those portfolios back in August 2024, allocating to QAU – our gold bullion ETF.
Gold had an extraordinary period of performance over that time, QAU was up over 80%. But it had arguably run too far, and then real yields and the US dollar pushed higher in the wake of the oil supply shock, so we exited the position. As an investment it stood out because it made such a large contribution to the overall performance of those diversified portfolios.
More recently, the US dollar has weakened again with gold rallying again from a base of US$4,000 an ounce. We continue to watch gold, given the geopolitical overhang and ongoing central bank buying, and may look to add it back to our managed account portfolios in future. Under the right conditions, it can be both a useful return driver and portfolio diversifier.
What’s your favourite chart or data point from this week?
My pick is the sector dispersion beneath the ASX headline. The S&P/ASX 200 had one of its worst weeks since April, down 1.6% last week, led lower by cyclical domestically-focused sectors like financials and consumer discretionary. Yet defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare, together with technology, have been strong performers through this earnings season.
It is a useful reminder for advisers that "the market was down" tells you very little in a rotation like this one. Defensives did exactly what you would want them to do in a risk-off week, while the banks wore weakening housing finance and the miners were mixed on softer gold and copper but a good result from BHP (ASX: BHP).
For anyone building portfolios, the diverging outlook between Australian and international equities is important to keep an eye on.
What was your weekly high – a standout market moment or highlight?
The US inflation data mid last week. A benign CPI print, following the prior week's soft jobs report, reduced the odds of a near-term rate hike, and that was enough to carry risk assets higher: the S&P 500 set a fresh record close just below 7,800.
With only one Fed hike priced in by markets towards the end of the year, broadening US earnings growth and high but not excessive valuations, the setup for global equities looks pretty good.
Interestingly both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Equal Weight index are outperforming the S&P500 (market cap weighted) index year to date, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight index in particular grinding higher with low volatility.
What was your weekly low – a market disappointment or challenge from the week?
The weekly low was the growing evidence of household weakness in Australia. It showed up most clearly on Monday when NAB (ASX: NAB) reported a 15% quarter-on-quarter drop in home-loan applications. The bank linked this negative trend to higher rates, weaker housing sentiment and the recent negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms.
Also on Monday, JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) posted record sales for FY26, but reported its comparable sales had turned negative in the fourth quarter and stayed negative across all three of its Australian brands in July. For the market's consumer bellwether, that is a clear signal spending is rolling over.
Lendlease (ASX: LLC) added to the gloom with a $749 million full year loss, and signs that presales of its high-end apartments are slowing.
What first drew you to markets or this sector and what continues to keep you inspired today?
I credit my early interest in markets and investing to my mum. She helped me buy my first shares in the nineties - MIM holdings and Telstra in the T2 public offer.
But thanks to my dad’s influence I actually started out studying engineering, until a uni friend showed me a textbook on options and financial derivatives. I was hooked. I ended up switching into finance and later did my master’s thesis on option pricing. What has kept me interested ever since is the big-picture dynamic nature of markets - you’re constantly trying to understand how economics, policy, companies and human behaviour all interact.
What’s one piece of advice you’d give to new investors?
The old adage that time in the market beats timing the market is still one of the best pieces of advice. It can be tempting to wait for the perfect time to invest or try to avoid every market downturn, but consistently getting those decisions right is incredibly difficult.
Starting early, staying diversified and giving compounding time to work can be far more powerful over the long term.
How do you unwind when you’re not thinking about the market?
I’m a long-suffering West Coast Eagles supporter, so AFL is one way I switch off - although depending on the weekend, I’m not sure “unwind” is always the right word. I also enjoy reading, particularly books that give you a different perspective on history, people or how the world works.
Rapid fire! 🔥
What is your favourite investing book?
When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management, by Roger Lowenstein. It’s a classic.
What is your favourite investing or finance/markets related podcast?
My favourite would have to be Eye on the Market with JP Morgan’s Michael Cembalest. He only releases one episode a month, but it’s worth the wait.
What’s the first thing you read each morning?
It's not the most exciting answer, but the first thing I usually read each morning is my Slack messages and emails. Then on my commute, I'll catch up on overnight markets on Bloomberg or a podcast like NAB Morning Call.
What is your favourite restaurant?
Sean's Panorama in Bondi. The food is always incredible but it's also about the relaxed atmosphere and being by the beach.
What’s something people are surprised to learn about you?
I am an avid hiker! I have a great group of mates that I regularly catch up with and hike different trails in NSW. I also like to sneak in a hike when I go away with my family on a holiday.
Think there’s a better pick? Prove it. Share your rapid-fire book, podcast, and daily read in the comments.
ETF
Betashares Diversified All Growth ETF (DHHF)
Global Shares
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ETF
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200)
Australian Shares
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I’m a Senior Content Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having previously covered the financial advice sector. I have a fundamental belief that taking the time to deeply research a topic drives true understanding, and nowhere is that more true than when investing your money.
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I’m a Senior Content Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having previously covered the financial advice sector. I have a fundamental belief that taking the time to deeply research a topic drives true understanding, and nowhere is that more...
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I’m a Senior Content Writer and Presenter at Livewire Markets, having previously covered the financial advice sector. I have a fundamental belief that taking the time to deeply research a topic drives true understanding, and nowhere is that more...
Expertise
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