Can I have your attention, please?

Late last year, not one but two fund managers I interviewed described themselves as “paranoid” about how they manage clients' money. I found it a curious and intriguing way to characterise their approach. I took it not as not reckless paranoia but rather hyper-vigilance.

Instead of focusing on the bull case for an investment (which many of us do) and dreaming up everything that could go right, they start from the opposite position: here’s everything that could go wrong. Now prove why the investment still works.

I love this approach, and it aligns well with the nugget I share with anyone who asks me for advice: Stay on top of your finances. Don’t leave that up to others.

If 2025 wasn’t proof enough, the extraordinary events in Venezuela over the weekend highlight just how quickly things can change. There is no such thing as the status quo anymore.

We live in fluid times across many dimensions – economic, political, technological – and that fluidity has the potential to both create and destroy opportunities at pace.

Add to the mix the fact that just about everyone seems to be bullish on equities as we begin the New Year, and that concentration at the top end of the US market will likely accelerate, and my Spidey-sense is tingling. 

When everyone is pointing in the same direction, there exists the greatest potential for extreme volatility. In my experience, it's also when things typically go haywire. 

And to be clear, this is not to say I expect markets to collapse, but any sense that we are going to get a smooth, linear bull market from here – the proverbial rising tide that lifts all boats - is fanciful.

The reality is that any move higher will likely be violent, characterised by fits and starts, and increasingly separated by pockets of extreme strength and comparative weakness.

In such an environment, it will pay to be paranoid and to do the work. But you must stay on top of things.

Of course, Livewire will be here to help you, but we can’t read the wires or watch the interviews for you.

So, what are we going to do about it?

I want to have conversations with experienced fund managers, strategists, and economists. In environments where change is rapid, I believe experience and a steady hand will pay the biggest dividends.

Whilst some of what we witness over the coming 12 months may be objectively "new" (due to AI, in particular), past navigation of similar market cycles could prove invaluable. 

In the middle of last year, I wrote a wire highlighting funds that had been operating for at least 20 years. It is available below.

Funds

The 20-year club: Sustained excellence in funds management

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Many of these funds are run by managers with equally long tenures, and I plan to harvest them for conversations in the first quarter.

At the same time, managers who are either investing in innovative companies or using technology to identify opportunities are also high on my list of people to talk to early this year.

The other block of content I’m hoping to unleash early this year concerns materials/commodities. Even after a ripping 2025, many managers and analysts are suggesting the materials sector will be the place to generate outperformance in 2026. But that’s a large space, so the goal will be to focus on the key commodities and opportunities for investors over the coming 12 months.

And the Livewire team?

As an editorial team, the question that we always have front of mind as we construct content is;

“What are the big questions that investors want answers to right now?”

That will remain our North Star as we seek to have more conversations that deliver practical and actionable insights in a timely manner – no small feat given the previously noted pace of change.

But getting to the heart of issues will be our focus. We live in an attention economy, and we understand that you don’t want to waste your attention on content that doesn’t deliver the insights you need to make better decisions.

If 2026 plays out anything like how I think it might, none of us will have any time to waste.