Capital Economics: US ADP points to solid NFP gain

“The ADP survey suggests that private sector employment increased by a respectable 200,000 in September, up slightly from a 186,000 gain the months before. Perhaps unsurprisingly, that means we're happy to stick with our existing forecast that the official non-farm payroll figures will show a similar-sized 200,000 increase in overall employment. (Data due for release this Friday.) Admittedly, the average monthly gain in payrolls has slowed from nearly 300,000 late last month. But employment growth at that pace was never going to be sustainable. Indeed, historically there are few times when payrolls have consistently risen by 200,000 per month for any extended period. As long as payroll growth doesn't dip below 120,000 a month, the unemployment rate, which is already at its long-run equilibrium rate, will continue to edge even lower.”


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