Chris Watling from Longview Economics raised the prospect of US unemployment going as low as 4%

James Marlay

Livewire Markets

Chris Watling from Longview Economics raised the prospect of US unemployment going as low as 4%. Commentary from the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting suggest the Fed is seeing positive labor market moves faster than they had anticipated. Participants generally agreed that both the recent improvement in labor market conditions and the cumulative progress over the past year had been greater than anticipated... however, the view that there is substantial slack to take up remains. What is interesting, however, is that there is divergence amongst committee members as to the value of the labor force figures due to changes in the participation rate. The other interesting observation was that members generally saw the risks of inflation running persistently below their objective as having diminished. Whilst it isn't alarming commentary on inflation it certainly suggests there is movement in key factors that influence rates. (VIEW LINK) @longview

James Marlay
Co Founder
Livewire Markets

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