Coppo: Is it time to turn Bullish?

Bell Potter

Stockbroker

Is it time to finally turn bullish after 3 years of treading water?? I THINK IT IS... 

 

A history of market cycles indicates it may be turning.. I'm expecting a good year (finally) for Aussie Market in 2017

 

How markets move & where we are now

 

A rough way of looking at markets is that there are 4 periods, we are in the 3rd right now...

 

  1. Market Crashes: The normal fall from the bull market high is about -24% over 26mths this time the ASX 200 was -21% over just 6mths
  2. Recovery (or hope): Recovers off its low +50% over 10mths. This time the ASX 200 has recovered +33% over the a longer period of 17 mths
  3. Growth Period: Where we see EPS growth but PEs retract. This period can run for 20mths to 3 years and mkt rises +6% to +10% over this time. This is where the ASX 200 is right now. This period started in November 2013 when it hit 5439. With the ASX 200 at present around 5400, it means that the ASX is near unchanged from that level and you could argue has traded sideways now for 3 years (from 5439 then to 5560 today (- just 2.2% above ).
  4. The Optimism Stage: I expect this to begin mid the 4th Qtr 2016, this is what we'd call the bull market stage that (historically) goes for 14 mths & the market rallies +24% in this stage...

 

So after 3 years we may be entering this stage right now ... Given the sideways or growth period went for 3 years – you'd have to guess we'll get at least 2 years out of this run ....

 

  1. Interest rates have come down & may go sideways until a Melb Cup hike in 2017 (but many feel 1 or 2 more cuts are coming) - which will continue to see switching out of yield stocks into cyclicals & banks & if $A comes off – as it should (stinger US$ with rates going up there).  Then that will give some stimulation to the Australian economy next year, the US economy could be on the verge of a big uptick on the Trump stimulation polices & if China holds its GDP at 6.7% to 6.5% - it could further fuel a decent bounce in 2017...

 

So when the market takes off – which I think it has .. we need to be aware that there are thought to be 3 stages of a bull market:

 

  1. When only a few particularly perceptive people suspect that an expansion might be happening
  2. When most people accept that the expansion is now really happening
  3. When everyone agrees that things are sure to expand with no fears of a fall

 

Chart of ASX 200 from April 2011 to December 2016 - with the 4 stages

Article contributed by Richard Coppleson, Director - Institutional Sales and Trading and author of The Coppo Report: (VIEW LINK)


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Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to a diversified client base that includes individuals, institutions and corporations.

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