Cullen Roche says that great investors think in terms of probabilities and not certainties

Cullen Roche says that great investors think in terms of probabilities and not certainties. This concept is very well known to good gamblers who understand that they're playing a negative sum game against the house. But in knowing when to bet big they can increase the odds that they will beat the house. That is, they can increase the expected value of their overall outcomes by knowing when to place the right bets. This isn't only due to the fact that they make big bets when the odds favor them, but also because they don't make the catastrophic mistakes that result from betting on things you can't understand. They not only win big, but they avoid losing big. (VIEW LINK)