Bell Potter

Currency Update: The AUD is higher overnight, at 0.9520, due in the main to a recent batch of strong economic data. The EUR strengthened modestly against the USD which follows a decline over the past 2weeks on speculation the ECB will cut its refinancing rate. US stock markets made good gains overnight, on hopes the FedReserve will maintain its accommodative monetary policy for a long time yet. In a paper written by William English who is head of the Fed's Division of Monetary affairs, he argued the economy could be boosted if the Bank had a lower 'threshold' for unemployment, currently 6.5%, suggesting as low as 5.5%. By stealth, this implies interest rates could therefore remain at zero until 2017, which has enormous implications. The Williams paper was quoted by renowned WSJ Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath, & again can be seen as emphasising beginning tapering does not mean tightening.


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