David Jenkins - dot-com on steroids reality check for the AI era
GQG's David Jenkins reveals AI capex risks, and explains why earnings are finally returning to gravity.
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Is the current AI-driven market rally a structural revolution or a speculative mirage? In this episode of Inside the Rope, host David Clark sits down with David Jenkins, Client Portfolio Manager at GQG Partners, to dissect the firm's recent contrarian stance on the technology sector.
As the "Magnificent Seven" continue to dominate headlines, many investors are feeling the squeeze of a "growth-at-any-cost" market. Jenkins explains why GQG—a firm managing over $250 billion AUD—is moving toward a defensive, value-oriented posture. We dive deep into their provocative white paper series, "Dot-Com on Steroids," exploring the "circularity" of AI capital expenditure and the looming risks in the private credit and data center boom.
If you’ve been questioning the sustainability of triple-digit multiples and wondering where to find quality when "gravity" eventually returns to earnings, this conversation provides a necessary, fundamental-based reality check.
- The AI Capex Mirage: Why the massive spending by "hyperscalers" may be creating a circular revenue trap that isn't backed by real-world earnings.
- Quality vs. Hype: Understanding GQG’s "forward-looking quality" philosophy and why they believe traditional tech "quality" is actually deteriorating.
- Hidden Gems in Value: Why sectors like insurance, healthcare, and utilities are becoming the new frontier for compounding capital.
- Infrastructure Red Flags: The risk of securing long-term debt against short-lived assets like GPUs that may burn out in 18 months.
- The "South Beach" Story: A look inside the rapid rise of GQG Partners and how they’ve achieved a 90% alpha strike rate over rolling five-year periods.
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David Clark is an Adviser & Partner at Koda Capital. In his podcast ‘Inside the Rope’, David interviews some of the leading minds in wealth management.
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This research note has been prepared without consideration of any client's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, Koda Capital Pty Ltd recommends that you consider whether this is appropriate for your circumstances.
While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Koda Capital Pty Ltd, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Koda does not accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.
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David Clark is an Adviser & Partner at Koda Capital. In his podcast ‘Inside the Rope’, David interviews some of the leading minds in wealth management.
Expertise
David Clark is an Adviser & Partner at Koda Capital. In his podcast ‘Inside the Rope’, David interviews some of the leading minds in wealth management.
Expertise
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