Dumb things

Huge moves continue across the boards in global markets – the Shanghai Composite rallied 16%(!) on the month to be up 25% this year, on top of last years 67%. Shares are the new property and there are record numbers of accounts being opened, with margin loans quite prevalent. This is clearly unsustainable in the long term but due to sheer size the momentum may carry it for a while yet. Commodities that had been under the cosh such as iron ore and oil rallied 10% – the base in oil felt real but the iron ore market is pretty scary, it could conceivably halve from here (having already lost 2/3rds). The $A was better supported on higher commodities generally. The big story, thought, have been the massive moves in the bond markets. It looks like the 30 year bull market in bonds is over, or at least the beginning of the end – US and German 10y bonds are 5-10% off their highs (yields off their lows). More below. (VIEW LINK)