ETF strategies for 2026

The global economy is at an inflection point after a tumultuous past year.

Despite predictions that equities would fall in 2025, international equities, buoyed by the boom in AI, finished 2025 much higher than they were at the end of 2024, despite a significant drawdown after ‘liberation day’. Gold was a standout, ending the calendar year over 50% higher than its price at the start of the year, finishing above US$4,300.

Looking ahead, the US midterms will headline 2026, as well as inflation, Fed cuts (and who will be made Chair).

Below, we share six charts that support:

• A potential flight to quality;
• Emerging market outperformance; and
• Continued gold price momentum.

AI may not be enough to hold up American growth

2025’s US growth has been heavily relying on AI. However, optimism centred around data centre expansion is likely to be limited in 2026 as valuation concerns become increasingly dominant. In the last quarter of 2025, we have seen speculative assets come under pressure as sentiment cooled. This trend could continue into the new year, bringing back market volatility.

Chart 1&2: US GDP & Corporate CAPEX

In addition, elevated tariffs have contributed to higher business input costs. If this is passed on to consumers or companies reduce margins it could further intensify the ‘flight to quality’.

Chart 3: A ‘flight to quality’ amid uncertain times

US dollar is positioned for further weakness

If history is any guide, the US dollar down cycles, once started, tend to extend beyond a few months. Looking into the new year, we think a macro environment will be increasingly defined by subdued growth, elevated US government indebtedness and easing monetary policy. This is likely to lead to a prolonged US dollar downturn. Furthermore, the US dollar’s share in total allocated international reserves has fallen to the lowest levels since the mid-1990s, reinforcing a broader shift away from dollar dominance.

Chart 4: US dollar vs global USD reserves

From an investment strategy perspective, 2026 could be a good year for classic dollar “hedges”. Think emerging market assets and gold.

Chart 5: Emerging market equities have outperformed in dollar down cycles

Chart 6: Gold has shown strength and resilience

ETF ideas for 2026

Flight to quality

VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF ASX: QUAL 

VanEck MSCI International Quality (AUD Hedged) ETF ASX: QHAL 

VanEck MSCI International Small Companies Quality ETF ASX: QSML 

VanEck MSCI International Small Companies Quality (AUD Hedged) ETF ASX: QHSM 

US dollar weakness

VanEck Emerging Income Opportunities Active ETF ASX: EBND 

VanEck MSCI Multifactor Emerging Markets Equity ETF ASX: EMKT 

VanEck Gold Bullion ETF ASX: NUGG 

VanEck Gold Miners ETF ASX: GDX 

Key risks

An investment in the funds involve risks. These risks include ASX trading time differences, financial markets generally, individual company management, industry sectors, foreign currency, currency hedging (QHAL and QHSM), country or sector concentration, political, regulatory and tax risks, fund operations and tracking an index. Read the respective PDS for more details.