European GDP growth could beat current 2014 forecasts without any acceleration from the December quarter estimate

John Robertson

PortfolioDirect

European GDP growth could beat current 2014 forecasts without any acceleration from the December quarter estimate. In the first quarter of 2013, the consensus for growth in 2014 among 53 responding forecasters surveyed by the European Central Bank had been 1.1% with 44.6% expecting an outcome to fall within the range 0.5%-1.4%. In the latest soundings, the mean forecast for 52 respondents was 1.0% but 64.7% expected growth within 0.5%-1.4%. However, the proportion expecting growth to exceed 1.4% fell from 26.7% to 18.9%. The longer forecasters take to assimilate better outcomes in their numbers, the better the chance of future positive market surprises. If growth in each of the four quarters of 2014 is the same as the latest estimate for the fourth quarter of 2013 (i.e. there is no improvement in European growth through the year), 2014 GDP growth would still be 1.5%.


John Robertson is Chief Investment Strategist for PortfolioDirect a provider of resource sector investment stock ratings and portfolio strategies for mining and oil and gas investors. He has worked as a policy economist, corporate business...

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